Monthly Stock Comparison 2020

Monthly Stock Comparison 2020

Country : China
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks 2018/2019
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
January1,024,200704,600762,5001,255,800 297,400519,0002,084,1002,479,400
February1,053,100887,9001,092,0001,203,300 300,600485,0002,445,7002,576,200
March878,800862,300952,8001,170,400 262,800407,5002,094,4002,440,200
April607,000929,650700,2001,198,800 146,800381,9001,454,0002,510,350
May527,100825,000735,2001,180,200 179,300440,4001,441,6002,445,600
June482,900754,700884,0001,280,000 172,500502,7001,539,4002,537,400
July428,400716,900998,9001,163,200 199,600460,7001,626,9002,340,800
August 651,000 1,122,300  385,800 2,159,100
September 653,600 1,134,200  386,400 2,174,200
October 708,550 1,098,600  391,300 2,198,450
November 780,000 924,200  317,800 2,022,000
December 842,700 790,800  344,500 1,978,000

Total stock level for the 3 major vegetable oils continue to climb higher for 2nd consecutive month and ended at 1.63 mil MT by end July, marginally higher by 5.7% on M-o-M.  The continue increase in stock mainly attributed to the ongoing higher output of SBO resulted from the increase in soybean arrival and crushing activities. With the sharp jump on M-o-M arrival of soybean in Jun by 1.88 mil MT (and unofficial estimation of 10.0 mil MT import of soybean for Jul & Aug), as well as favourable crushing margin, soybean crushers increase the utilisation of their crushing capacities to supply SBM and SBO during the month. These led to the 3rd consecutive months of increase in SBO stock, while SBM stock took a dip in Jul as demand for animal feed grew faster than oil.  Nevertheless, from the continue increase in soybean stock level, we might not see the crushing volume of soybean remain as active as in June as the crushing margin has slowly narrowed with the depleting Brazilian soybean supplies while US soybean has yet to come into the country to satisfy the thirst for this oilcrop.

In contrary to SBO, PO’s stock level dropped for the 5th consecutive month and reached 428,400 MT by end July, a level that is less than the monthly buffer level required, which may further support the local price of PO in coming months. This came despite the M-o-M increase in PO import in Jun and expected to increase further in Jul, indicating that the demand of PO is also slowly picking up in China with the revival of most industries and catering sector. This is being indicated on the narrowing on Y-o-Y lost in catering revenue from May’s -18.9% to Jun’s -15.2%. The strong demand on PO also attributed to the widening of PO-SBO discount to RMB620/MT in July, making it even more attractive and cheaper to use especially during the summer month. Nevertheless, the PO stock replenishment intention is not strong currently in China as most importers and traders believe that the upcoming increase output in SBO is expected to make PO less attractive and hence, taken the approach of hand-to-mouth trading model. Hence, the PO stock level might continue to hover around 500,000 level for 3Q2020 and might increase towards year end if US soybean doesn’t arrive in time to satisfy the crushing demand.

Finally, with ongoing Sino-Canada diplomatic tension status remain unchanged, it will continue to post challenge for the large import of rapeseed by China as other countries would not be able to substitute Canada to supply large volume of rapeseed. Hence, the output of RSO will remain small and similar to 2019. This will limit the crushing volume of rapeseed and subsequently the output of RSO. Hence, stock level of RSO might stay below 200,000 MT in near future, especially competitively priced sunflower oil could be used as alternative to RSO in China in consumer pack cooking oil sector, while SBO might take some shares in mid-packed cooking oil. 

Country : India
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
August 641,586 161,465 154,987 5,544  963,582
September 742,610 257,622 152,666 4,050  1,156,949
October 754,758 346,360 169,566 3,514  1,274,198
November 646,662 161,560 151,209 1,352  960,783
December 682,622 121,685 114,572 32  918,911

July 2020 stocks are 11% lower than July 2019 but 31% higher than June 2020. This reflects the increasing imports and rising domestic demand. Imports in the next 2 months should be robust till the pipeline is reasonably replenished. PPO stocks have increased by 39% compared to previous month, SBO by 47% and SFO by 1%. This reflects the significant increase in SBO imports, even at the cost of SFO.

Country : Pakistan
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
May298,750270,90617,5008,000 316,250278,906
June275,180302,8903,80034,840   278,980337,730
July264,000305,30033,00034,000   297,000339,300
August 310,474 36,610    347,084
September 286,880 27,148    314,028
October 326,130 11,050    337,180
November 302,000 14,000    316,000
December 359,045 8,500    367,545

At the end of July 2020, the edible oil stocks at Port Qasim Authority (PQA) and Karachi Port Trust (KPT) have recorded a figure of 297,000 MT which is 6.46% higher than the closing stocks of the previous month. Out of the total 297,000 MT of stocks available, the stocks of palm olein are showing the highest share of 51.52% followed by RBD palm oil 24.24%, CPO 8.42% and soybean oil 11.11%. Palm oil and its various fractions have a share of 88.89% in the total ending stocks. The current stock level of edible oil at Port Qasim and Karachi port has reached its optimum level of approximately 300,000 MT. The anticipated imports of oils and fats in the of August and September is likely to stay in the range of 230,000 – 240,000 MT as the importers were cautious in booking volumes because of the increasing prices. If the arrivals in the following two months decline then the stocks for palm oil might come down as the lifting of cargo is improving as the country is coming out of lockdown and consumer buying is also improving.

Country : Bangladesh
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
August 76,759 146,987 2,985 226,691
September 87,959 157,736 2,985 248,680
October 120,450 146,725 2,985 270,160
November 96,599 67,160 2,985 166,744
December 74,967 38,335 2,985 116,287

Due to COVID – 19, consumption of oils and fats has declined significantly. In pace with decline of consumption lifting of oils and fats from bulk storage facilities also declined. Consequently, import of oils and fats also in declining trend compared to corresponding period of 2019 resulting significant decline of stocks of the same in the country’s bulk storage facilities.

In July 2020, only 139,206 tonnes of palm oil and soyabean oil has been lifted from the bulk storage facilities of the country against usual monthly lifting quantity of about 200,000 tonnes, on an average. These could be translated that in July, 2020 lifting of oils from bulk storage facilities of the country was lower by about 30% compared to usual monthly lifting quantity.  

Total 139,206 tonnes of palm oil and soyabean oil has been lifted from the bulk storage facilities in July 2020 of which 57.45% was palm oil and rest 42.55% was soyabean oil.

Country : USA
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
Palm Oil (MT) Soybean Oil (MT) Sunflower Oil (MT) Rapeseed Oil (MT) Other Oils (MT) Total Ending Stocks (MT)
2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019
January 155,000 146,000 689,000 862,000 38,300 42,000 132,300 110,000 887,000 698,000 1,901,600 1,858,000
February 149,000 950,000 37,900 99,100 527,600 1,763,600
March 141,500 895,400 35,400 113,600 550,500 1,736,400
April 153,200 840,000 38,800 109,700 511,200 1,652,900
May 139,870 910,000 66,890 89,153 529,000 1,734,913
June 159,300 885,000 45,900 92,300 492,200 1,674,700
July 179,700 905,000 55,400 104,000 518,000 1,762,100
August 171,200 780,000 45,000 135,000 521,600 1,652,800
September 175,600 776,000 51,200 145,000 575,000 1,722,800
October 154,200 810,000 41,500 155,000 610,000 1,770,700
November 181,000 825,000 47,600 170,100 625,000 1,848,700
December 179,400 656,000 52,300 175,200 676,100 1,739,000

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

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