Monthly Stock Comparison 2020

Monthly Stock Comparison 2020

Country : China
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202020192020201920202019202020192020201920202019
January1,024,200704,600762,5001,255,800 297,400519,0002,084,1002,479,400
February1,053,100887,9001,092,0001,203,300 300,600485,0002,445,7002,576,200
March878,800862,300952,8001,170,400 262,800407,5002,094,4002,440,200
April607,000929,650700,2001,198,800 146,800381,9001,454,0002,510,350
May527,100825,000735,2001,180,200 179,300440,4001,441,6002,445,600
June482,900754,700884,0001,280,000 172,500502,7001,539,4002,537,400
July428,400716,900998,9001,163,200 199,600460,7001,626,9002,340,800
August479,100651,0001,057,8001,122,300 176,500385,8001,713,4002,159,100
September409,500653,6001,056,6001,134,200 224,200386,4001,690,3002,174,200
October470,500708,5501,022,2001,098,600 221,100391,3001,713,8002,198,450
November600,500780,000900,100924,200 157,400317,8001,658,0002,022,000
December714,000842,700752,900790,800 124,500344,5001,591,4001,978,000

Movement of ending stocks of 3 major vegetable oils in China in December extended the similar trend recorded in the past 2 months respectively, with PO stock continue to increase, while SBO & RSO’s stock decreased for the 3rd consecutive month.  With the drop of SBO stock sharper than what was being built-up by PO by end Dec 2020, the total closing stock of 3 vegetable oils was down by 4% from 1.66 mil MT to 1.59 mil MT.

As highlighted in last month’s report, PO stock was expected to rise mainly due to the weather situation where winter’s arrival made PL not convenient to use without heating in many applications. Similar this factor continue to play an important role in determining the demand for PL. Nevertheless, as the monthly average price discount against SBO had further expanded from RMB1,234 in Nov to RMB1,515 in Dec, this offers some room for fractionation of PL to lower SMP (10C or below) for some uses particularly in catering sector through medium pack cooking oil, where PL is being blended with SBO.   Nevertheless, the positive import margins available in Sep & Oct had surely enticed many importers or traders to lock in their PL position against DCE Olein Futures, which is expected to lead to the high import volume of PO by Dec, and this contributed to the rising stock level of PO to its 9-month high. By end Dec, PO stock risen by 113,500 MT to 714,000 MT. This came despite the anticipated slowdown of total PO import due to higher SBO output in China due to the revival of soybean crushing activities.

Theoretically, the higher soybean crushing activities especially with positive crushing margin seen most of the time in 2nd half of 2020, SBO stock should have slowly built up towards end of the year but the data shows otherwise. Stock level of SBO has been declining towards the end of the year due to the slowdown of SBM demand as the uptake of this protein meal was not as strong as anticipated. By end of the year, the swine industry only manage to recover to about 80% of the pre-ASF level. Although it remains a positive growth y-o-y but the aggressive crushing activities took place in 3Q has landed China will high stock.  This has led to slowdown of crushing activities towards the end of the year and hence, causing the decline of SBO output and stock level by 16.4%.

Similarly, the stock level of RSO in Dec has also declined by 20.9% or 132,900 MT. Although the volume is relatively small as compared to SBO, but this signifies that the demand for this soft oil is strong towards end of the year, especially when the RSO prices has risen strongly due to the anticipated supply shortage of rapeseed. The drop in rapeseed stock also came as surprise when the import rapeseed in recent month has gained some momentum as Chinese government has seen slowly loosening the “restriction” on the import of Canadian rapeseed, which may signifies the softening on the diplomatic tension between the 2 countries.

With the country still going through in January 2021, and also the advice by Chinese government of staying at home and cut down social gathering, to prevent the possible spreading of covid-19 virus in what is said to be high risk period.  As such, the catering industry might not see a strong recovery in January to pre-covid level, and in return, more households will still be choosing to have meals at home. This will be impacting the demand for PL and would see the stock remain high despite the anticipated slowdown in PL import in January 2021.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : India
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202020192020201920202019202020192020201920202019
January657,547697,028153,08265,300191,371135,403261417,1401,002,041905,132
February672,605819,989234,37680,673233,285135,0501,5525566,3681,141,8181,042,636
March533,094747,858237,01499,696248,085186,2442,01511,020,2081,033,799
April497.435716,486119,136126,138251,697212,3944521868,7201,055,019
May315,101651,54799,67845,372173,397189,7871,0751589,251886,707
June330,207610,929100,25663,809183,899142,2551731615,535816,994
July460,302586,876147,634109,741198,013171,870805,949868,487
August420,613641,586206,444161,465178,975154,9875,544806,032963,582
September304,957742,610210,691257,62281,048152,66616,5524,050613,2481,156,949
October353,361754,758151,280346,36093,783169,5667,6403,514 606,0641,274,198
November303,123646,662171,356161,560141,032151,2091,2321,352 616,743960,783
December376,317672,711142,401121,685157,091114,5721532 675,824918,911

December 2020 stocks are 44% lower than Dec 2019 but 10% higher than the previous month. In view of the galloping international prices, there is bound to be demand rationing and imports may not pick up fast. Also, the Rabi crop is expected soon. At expected higher production levels, this is expected to fill the gap created by lower imports. Whilst POP stocks rose 24% compared to Nov 2020, Soft Oils stocks fell by 5% POP stocks have shown a significant increase of 24% but this does not necessarily signify increased demand for CPO. It was known that Malaysia would re-impose CPO export duty from Jan 2021. Indonesia would also be increasing levies and export duty in Jan. This has led exporters to increase the Dec exports to save higher taxes in Jan and park the stocks in importing countries. Most likely, this will affect Jan/Feb imports.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : Pakistan
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202020192020201920202019202020192020201920202019
January373,630383,0007,0004,500370,630388,300
February417,170366,0003,3009,700420,470375,700
March380,270359,75010018,000380,370377,750
April316,405326,87023,500316,405350,370
May298,750270,90617,5008,000316,250278,906
June275,180302,8903,80034,840278,980337,730
July264,000305,30033,00034,000297,000339,300
August277,985310,47417,75036,610295,735347,084
September224,376286,88033,25027,148257,626314,028
October171,935326,13014,80011,050186,735337,180
November207,260302,0004,80014,000212,060316,000
December286,380359,0458,500286,380367,545

At the end of December 2020, the edible oil stocks at Port Qasim Authority (PQA) and Karachi Port Trust (KPT) have recorded a figure of 286,380 MT which is 35.05% higher than the closing stocks of the previous month.

Out of the total 286,380 MT of stocks available at Port Qasim Authority and Karachi Port, the stocks of palm olein is showing the highest share of 40.23% followed by RBD palm  oil 38.70% and CPO 12.68%. Palm oil and its various fractions have a share of 100% in the total ending stocks.

The stock level of oils and fats in Pakistan is gradually increasing to its optimum level of 300,000 MT after seeing the low of 186,735 MT at the end of October. During the last quarter of 2020, the stocks have shown an improvement of 53% which is mainly due to high arrival of oils and fats in the last 3 months. It is anticipated that the imports will maintain the current level 285,000 – 300,000 MT per month which will gradually build the stock and maintain monthly average consumption in the market.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : Bangladesh
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202020192020201920202019202020192020201920202019
January88,773174,71377,972183,7582,985169,730358,471
February74,392200,59337,740149,7622,984115,116350,355
March116,480214,10193,89699,2832,9842,985208,794316,369
April115,809238,87884,217184,4862,9842,985203,010426,349
May110,466181,57416,837210,0774852,985127,788394,636
June74,344125,89261,468174,4284852,985136,279303,305
July68,911125,038112,140143,9394852,985181,536271,962
August37,50176,759114,885146,9874852,985152,871226,691
September33,07287,959105,929157,7364852,985139,486248,680
October34,906120,450106,267146,7254852,985141,658270,160
November3,66996,599102,31267,1604852,985106,466166,744
December30,44274,967115,81738,3352,985146,259116,287

In Dec. 2020, total import quantity of oils and fats was 262,472 tonnes, which was 28.19% higher compared to Dec. 2019. Import quantity of RBD PL in Dec. 2020 was 116,591 tonnes, which also witnessed a noticeable growth by 16.26% compared to the corresponding month of 2019.There was no import of CPO, CPL and RBD PO in Dec. 2020. Import quantity of CDSBO in Dec. 2020 was 85,732 tonnes, which witnessed a noticeable growth by about 73.20% compared to Dec. 2019. Monthly trading volume of oils and fats has returned to normal trend, but because of cold weather trading volume of refined olein and super olein have declined significantly.    

In Dec. 2020, total 158,248 tonnes of CDSBO and palm oil have been lifted from the bonded tanks, which was about 29.41% lower compared to Nov. 2020. Out of total lifting quantity of 158,248 tonnes, about 56.76% (89,818 tonnes) was palm oil comprises of RBD PO and RBD olein, 42.94% (67,945 tonnes) was CDSBO and rest 0.30% (485 tonnes) was sunflower seed oil. 

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : USA
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)*Sunflower Oil (MT)*Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)*
 202020192020201920202019202020192020201920202019
January155,000146,000689,000870,00038,30045,00072,300110,00055,400129,0001,010,0001,300,000
February161,500149,000690,000950,00027,00037,90082,00099,10079,500144,0001,040,0001,380,000
March168,000141,500830,000910,00025,00035,40073,000113,60054,000129,5001,150,0001,330,000
April160,000153,200853,000844,00027,00038,80083,000109,700107,000104,3001,230,0001,250,000
May164,500139,870880,000846,00023,00036,00085,00089,15397,500128,9771,250,0001,240,000
June160,000159,300916,000885,00024,00035,00066,00092,300114,00098,4001,280,0001,270,000
July178,000179,700935,000851,00034,00037,50065,000104,00098,00047,8001,310,0001,220,000
August160,000171,200941,000805,00033,00038,00064,000135,00022,00010,8001,220,0001,160,000
September171,000175,600844,000670,00028,00036,00075,000195,000112,00083,4001,230,0001,160,000
October165,000154,200796,000690,00031,00029,00061,000105,000237,00071,8001,290,0001,050,000
November160,000181,000857,000660,00034,00027,00087,000130,100113,00021,9001,251,0001,020,000
December 179,400 660,000 23,000 135,200 22,400 1,020,000

Source: *USDA, MPOC Estimates

US ending stocks reported a total of 1,251,000 MT for November 2020 which is 3.02% lower than the ending stocks of the previous month of October 2020. From that amount, palm oil closing stock recorded a decrease of 3.03%, soybean oil increased by 7.66%, sunflower oil increased by 9.68% and rapeseed oil increased by 42.62%, when compared to the amount from the previous month. According to USDA report, the US soybean ending stock for 2020/21 is projected to be very low at 4.76 million MT (175 million bushel). The low projection combined with strong export demand and depleting South American supply are supporting the soybean export price at USD474 per ton.

Source: *USDA, MPOC Estimates

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

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