Monthly Stock Comparison 2020

Monthly Stock Comparison 2020

Country : China
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202020192020201920202019202020192020201920202019
January1,024,200704,600762,5001,255,800 297,400519,0002,084,1002,479,400
February1,053,100887,9001,092,0001,203,300 300,600485,0002,445,7002,576,200
March878,800862,300952,8001,170,400 262,800407,5002,094,4002,440,200
April607,000929,650700,2001,198,800 146,800381,9001,454,0002,510,350
May527,100825,000735,2001,180,200 179,300440,4001,441,6002,445,600
June482,900754,700884,0001,280,000 172,500502,7001,539,4002,537,400
July428,400716,900998,9001,163,200 199,600460,7001,626,9002,340,800
August479,100651,0001,057,8001,122,300 176,500385,8001,713,4002,159,100
September409,500653,6001,056,6001,134,200 224,200386,4001,690,3002,174,200
October 708,550 1,098,600  391,300 2,198,450
November 780,000 924,200  317,800 2,022,000
December 842,700 790,800  344,500 1,978,000

Total stock of 3 major vegetable oils halted the 3-month upward trend in Sep 2020 and declined marginally by 23,000 MT to 1.69 mil MT, which is 14.5% lower than last year’s end stock, and 22.3% lower Y-o-Y. Among the 3 major oils, PO was the major contributor to the drop in total stock.

In September, PO stock declined by 69,600 MT or 14.5% and reached 409,500, the lowest stock level since Sep 2017, a 3-year record low.  The drop of PO stock could be attributed to the increase in demand due to the weather condition, as well as the widening of PL average price discount against SBO from RMB606/MT in August to RMB778/MT in September. Nevertheless, as the import margin was relative low back in June/Jul, which led to the lower cargoes ordered for the delivery in September, has subsequently caused the drop in PO stock by the end of Sep.

In contrary, SBO stock almost unchanged in Sep M-o-M at 1.06 mil MT, which is 6.8% lower Y-o-Y. The drop in SBO stock could be attributed to the possible slowdown in soybean crushing activity as the crushing margin has deteriorated in Sep as compared to the previous month (RMB2.75 vs. RMB59.60/MT).  Although the import statistic for September is not available, it is estimated that the import volume might be lower M-o-M as most of the Brazil soybean has been sold and shipped, while the US soybean has yet to be available in large quantity for export. Another reason would be the slowdown in the demand for soybean meal (SBM) as the stock level of this oilmeal stay above 1.0 mil MT since mid-August, when there was a decline in soybean crushing activities since July. This indicates the slowdown of animal feed demand and make the crushers more cautious in crushing soybean.

Among the 3 oils, RSO was the only vegetable oil that show an increase in stock level. The increase would primary due to the sharp increase in RSO price in September, where futures gone up from RMB8603 to the height of RMB9425/MT (21 Sep) before retreated back to RMB8820 by the end of the month. This has deterred packers to buy more oils as the cooking oil prices is closely monitored by the authority and sharp increase in retail price is not encouraged. Since most RSO is being sold as cooking oil, and hence led to the decline in purchase by the cooking oil packers during the month as the margin became thinner. This also provide good opportunity for sunflower oil to take over more market share from RSO in the cooking oil market. Finally, the continue deadlock in Sino-Canada diplomatic tension is expected to keep posting challenge for the large import of rapeseed by China as other countries would not be able to substitute Canada to supply large volume of rapeseed. This will limit the crushing volume of rapeseed and subsequently the output of RSO.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : India
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202020192020201920202019202020192020201920202019
January657,547697,028153,08265,300191,371135,403261417,1401,002,041905,132
February672,605819,989234,37680,673233,285135,0501,5525566,3681,141,8181,042,636
March533,094747,858237,01499,696248,085186,2442,01511,020,2081,033,799
April497.435716,486119,136126,138251,697212,3944521868,7201,055,019
May315,101651,54799,67845,372173,397189,7871,0751589,251886,707
June330,207610,929100,25663,809183,899142,2551731615,535816,994
July460,302586,876147,634109,741198,013171,870805,949868,487
August420,613641,586206,444161,465178,975154,9875,544806,032963,582
September304,957742,610210,691257,62281,048152,66616,5524,050613,2481,156,949
October 754,758 346,360 169,566 3,514  1,274,198
November 646,662 161,560 151,209 1,352  960,783
December 682,622 121,685 114,572 32  918,911

Sept 2020 stocks are a whopping 47% lower than Sept 2019 and 24% lower than the previous month. These stock levels are reminiscent of the critically low stock levels in May/June this year. The low stocks could be due to the sharp run up in international prices. Nobody likes to maintain high stocks when prices are high. Imports in the next 2 months should be robust due to upcoming festival season and low stocks but maybe be tempered by rising prices. PPO stocks have fell by 20% compared to previous month. Soft Oils also fell by 12%. Although import figures are still not available, this may signify a reduction in all imports.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : Pakistan
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202020192020201920202019202020192020201920202019
January373,630383,0007,0004,500370,630388,300
February417,170366,0003,3009,700420,470375,700
March380,270359,75010018,000380,370377,750
April316,405326,87023,500316,405350,370
May298,750270,90617,5008,000316,250278,906
June275,180302,8903,80034,840278,980337,730
July264,000305,30033,00034,000297,000339,300
August277,985310,47417,75036,610295,735347,084
September224,376286,88033,25027,148257,626314,028
October 326,130 11,050    337,180
November 302,000 14,000    316,000
December 359,045 8,500    367,545

At the end of September 2020, the edible oil stocks at Port Qasim Authority (PQA) and Karachi Port Trust (KPT) have recorded a figure of 257,626 MT which is 12.89% less than the closing stocks of the previous month. This has been the lowest stock level recorded in Pakistan since November 2018 and it is due to a combination of factors.

Out of the total 257,626 MT of stocks available at Port Qasim Authority and Karachi Port, the stocks of palm olein are showing the highest share of 38.07% followed by RBD palm oil 36.78%, Soybean oil 12.91% and CPO 4.66%. Palm oil and its various fractions have a share of 87% in the total ending stocks.

The off take of edible oil in the consumer and commercial market is improving with the easing of the public gathering restrictions. However, the imports of oils and fats is still recording moderate figures. The industry is currently importing minimum level requirement which is putting pressure on the stocks. The cotton crop in Pakistan which is the biggest local oilseed crop is likely to go down in 2020 due to low harvest and decline in textile industry exports. This decline will also put pressure on the imports of oils and fats or existing stocks at local parts. It is anticipated that the local stocks of edible oil in Pakistan will go down further in the next two months and the year ending stocks in 2020 will be around 230,000 MT.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : Bangladesh
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202020192020201920202019202020192020201920202019
January88,773174,71377,972183,7582,985169,730358,471
February74,392200,59337,740149,7622,984115,116350,355
March116,480214,10193,89699,2832,9842,985208,794316,369
April115,809238,87884,217184,4862,9842,985203,010426,349
May110,466181,57416,837210,0774852,985127,788394,636
June74,344125,89261,468174,4284852,985136,279303,305
July68,911125,038112,140143,9394852,985181,536271,962
August37,50176,759114,885146,9874852,985152,871226,691
September33,07287,959105,929157,7364852,985139,486248,680
October 120,450 146,725 2,985 270,160
November 96,599 67,160 2,985 166,744
December 74,967 38,335 2,985 116,287

In Sept. 2020, total import quantity of oils and fats was 199,049 tonnes, which witnessed a marginal decline by 0.07% compared to the quantity imported in Sept. 2019. Noticeable decline of import of CDSBO to the tune of 4.55% compared to the corresponding period of 2019 contributed mainly in the said decline. Import of RBD PO/Olein in Sept. 2020 was marginally higher by 0.60% compared to Sept. 2019. While trading volume of oils and fats, which was in lower trend since April 20202 due to COVID – 19, has started to pick up in pace with the return of normal life. But import trend is yet to be cope up with the consumption trend and as a result stocks of oils and fats, specially palm oil, came to a minimum level in the bonded tanks of the country.  

In Sept. 2020, total 165,220 tonnes of CDSBO and palm oil were lifted from the bonded tanks, which was about 42% higher compared to Aug. 2020. Of which 77.27% (127,671 tonnes) was palm oil comprises of RBD PO and RBD olein and rest 22.73% (37,549 tonnes) was CDSBO. 

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : USA
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)*Sunflower Oil (MT)*Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)*
 202020192020201920202019202020192020201920202019
January155,000146,000689,000870,00038,30045,00072,300110,00055,400129,0001,010,0001,300,000
February161,500149,000690,000950,00027,00037,90082,00099,10079,500144,0001,040,0001,380,000
March168,000141,500830,000910,00025,00035,40073,000113,60054,000129,5001,150,0001,330,000
April160,000153,200853,000844,00027,00038,80083,000109,700107,000104,3001,230,0001,250,000
May164,500139,870880,000846,00023,00036,00085,00089,15397,500128,9771,250,0001,240,000
June160,000159,300916,000885,00024,00035,00066,00092,300114,00098,4001,280,0001,270,000
July178,000179,700935,000851,00034,00037,50065,000104,00098,00047,8001,310,0001,220,000
August160,000171,200941,000805,00033,00038,00064,000135,00022,00010,8001,220,0001,160,000
September171,000175,600844,000670,00028,00036,00075,000195,000112,00083,4001,230,0001,160,000
October 154,200 690,000 29,000 105,000 71,800 1,050,000
November 181,000 660,000 27,000 130,100 21,900 1,020,000
December 179,400 660,000 23,000 135,200 22,400 1,020,000

Source: *USDA, MPOC Estimates

US ending stocks reported a total of 1,220,000 MT for August 2020 which is 6.8% lower than the ending stocks of the previous month of July 2020. From that amount, soybean oil closing stocks recorded an increase of 0.64%, palm oil by (-10.1%), sunflower oil by (-2.9%) and rapeseed oil by (-1.5%). According to USDA report, high domestic and export demand for US soybean is likely to result in tight soybean ending stocks. US soybean export have surpassed the five-year average by more than 25% over the last six weeks, while crush volume registered the fifth-largest volume in history. It is projected that US oils and fats import will increase in the coming months to meet its local demand.

Source: *USDA, MPOC Estimates

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

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