Monthly Stock Comparison 2020

Monthly Stock Comparison 2020

CHINA​

Country : China
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks 2018/2019
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202020192020201920202019202020192020201920202019
January1,024,200704,600762,5001,255,800 297,400519,0002,084,1002,479,400
February 887,900 1,203,300  485,000 2,576,200
March 862,300 1,170,400  407,500 2,440,200
April 929,650 1,198,800  381,900 2,510,350
May 825,000 1,180,200  440,400 2,445,600
June 754,700 1,280,000  502,700 2,537,400
July 716,900 1,163,200  460,700 2,340,800
August 651,000 1,122,300  385,800 2,159,100
September 653,600 1,134,200  386,400 2,174,200
October 708,550 1,098,600  391,300 2,198,450
November 780,000 924,200  317,800 2,022,000
December 842,700 790,800  344,500 1,978,000

The total ending stock of 3 major oils in China rose marginally at the start of 2020 to 2.08 million MT, from 1.98 million MT recorded by the end of 2019. The increase mainly can be attributed to the sharp increase in PO stock (up by 181,500 MT) against SBO and RSO which recorded a marginally drop. The increase in PO stock could be attributed to the cold weather and coupled with the lower discount against SBO which dropped to average less than RMB700/MT in Dec 2019 and Jan 2020.  Another reason was the early arrival of Chinese New Year in 2020 where most manufacturing plants have would have stopped operation in mid Jan 2020, and this has reduced the demand for oils & fats especially PO which is the main oil used in this sector.

Although there is marginally increase in m-o-m basis, the Jan 2020 stock level is about 400,000 MT lower as compared to Jan 2019.  Anyhow, if taken into account the stock of SBO and RSO stored in the form of soybean and rapeseed, total stock available in China in fact was even higher by approximately 160,000 MT (m-o-m) to 2.88 million MT. This stock level is suffice for China to last for at least one month in totality but if we single out PO’s stock, it will allow China to have sufficient supplies of PO for at least 2 months, judging from the cold weather condition which will last at least until mid-April.

In view of the current widespread of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (NCP) situation in China, the demand for oils & fats might take a change where PO demand might remain unchanged due to the increase in processed foods production, while demand of soft oils such as SBO & RSO may experience a slight dip as catering business is badly affected and also ongoing African Swine Fever (ASF) will lead most of the crushers to stay on side-line to monitor the situation of livestock industry before increase their operation rate in next few months.

INDIA

Country : India
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202020192020201920202019202020192020201920202019
January657,547697,028153,08265,300191,371135,403261417,1401,002,041905,132
February 819,989 80,673 135,050 556 6,368 1,042,636
March 747,858 99,696 186,244 1  1,033,799
April 716,486 126,138 212,394 1  1,055,019
May 651,547 45,372 189,787 1  886,707
June 610,929 63,809 142,255 1  816,994
July 586,876 109,741 171,870   868,487
August 641,586 161,465 154,987 5,544  963,582
September 742,610 257,622 152,666 4,050  1,156,949
October 754,758 346,360 169,566 3,514  1,274,198
November 646,662 161,560 151,209 1,352  960,783
December 682,622 121,685 114,572 32  918,911

January 2020 stocks are higher than January 2019 and also as compared to most months in the previous year. It is rumoured that these stock levels are at very low levels but comparison with previous months belie this notion.

Total stocks in Jan 2020 end are estimated at 1.002 MMT, up 9% from the previous month & up 11% from previous year. POP stocks have declined 4% from previous month, whereas SBO/SFO have shown appreciable increase. SBO stocks have increased 26% and SFO stocks by 67%, signifying that Soft Oil imports would have again increased in Dec 2019. This is as expected as import duties on POP are expected to decrease in Jan 2020. The trade and industry, which was canvassing for an increase in the differential between CPO and RBD, was disappointed that the differential was brought down to 7.5% in Jan 2020, following the AIFTA and continues to work to increase the differential.

Demand for POP will be influenced by various factors such as restrictions on imports of RBD, and general feeling towards Malaysia. Ultimately, price parities will be the determining factor.

PAKISTAN

Country : Pakistan
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202020192020201920202019202020192020201920202019
January373,630383,0007,0004,500   370,630388,300
February 366,000 9,700    375,700
March 359,750 18,000    377,750
April 326,870 23,500    350,370
May 270,906 8,000    278,906
June 302,890 34,840    337,730
July 305,300 34,000    339,300
August 310,474 36,610    347,084
September 286,880 27,148    314,028
October 326,130 11,050    337,180
November 302,000 14,000    316,000
December 359,045 8,500    367,545

At the end of January 2020, the edible oil stocks at Port Qasim Authority (PQA) and Karachi Port Trust (KPT) have recorded a figure of 380,630 MT which is 3.44% higher than the closing stocks of the previous month.

Out of the total 380,630 MT of stocks available at Port Qasim Authority and Karachi Port, the stocks of palm olein are showing the highest share of 59.50% followed by RBD palm oil 19.42%, CPO 13.73% and soybean oil 1.84%. Palm oil and its various fractions have a share of 98.16% in the total ending stocks.

The optimum level of stocks in Pakistan is in the range of 275,000 MT to 300,000 MT, as this is the average monthly requirement of the industry. However, the stock level in Pakistan has been maintained at high levels few months which is mainly due to increased imports by commercial importers.

The imports and stock for palm oil; especially palm olein are expected to increase further in February and March as some of the palm olein cargo booked for India is being diverted to Pakistan due to the restriction of refined oil imports in India.

BANGLADESH

Country : Bangladesh
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202020192020201920202019202020192020201920202019
January88,773174,71377,972183,7582,985169,730358,471
February 200,593 149,762  350,355
March 214,101 99,283 2,985 316,369
April 238,878 184,486 2,985 426,349
May 181,574 210,077 2,985 394,636
June 125,892 174,428 2,985 303,305
July 125,038 143,939 2,985 271,962
August 76,759 146,987 2,985 226,691
September 87,959 157,736 2,985 248,680
October 120,450 146,725 2,985 270,160
November 96,599 67,160 2,985 166,744
December 74,967 38,335 2,985 116,287

Stocks of the two major oils consumed in the country; palm oil and soybean oil, comprised about 90% to 92% of total cooking oil consumed in the country. However, the stock level for January 2020 period is alarming as compared to the same period in 2019, which saw a drop of 53%. It may be mentioned here that the aforesaid stock refers to the oils stored in the bonded shore tanks plus the consignments which were arrived in January and waiting for discharge.

Although import quantity of RBD Olein in January 2020 witnessed growth of 18.11% compared to January 2019, still stock of palm oil is about 49% lower compared to the stock of end January 2019. Comparatively lower import of CDSBO during November to December 2019 and January 2020 also contributed in lowering the stock to these two oils on end January 2020.

With the rise of ambient temperature, consumption of palm oil would start to increase from mid-February and continue to increase and would reach to its peak during Ramadan (April-May period). Accordingly, country would need to import about 500,00 to 600,000 MT of palm oil, almost 90% of which will be RBD olein, to meet the requirements of palm oil during mid-February to mid-May period.

USA

Country : USA
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202020192020201920202019202020192020201920202019
January155,000146,000689,000862,00038,30042,000132,300110,000887,000698,0001,901,6001,858,000
February 149,000 950,000 37,900 99,100 527,600 1,763,600
March 141,500 895,400 35,400 113,600 550,500 1,736,400
April 153,200 840,000 38,800 109,700 511,200 1,652,900
May 139,870 910,000 66,890 89,153 529,000 1,734,913
June 159,300 885,000 45,900 92,300 492,200 1,674,700
July 179,700 905,000 55,400 104,000 518,000 1,762,100
August 171,200 780,000 45,000 135,000 521,600 1,652,800
September 175,600 776,000 51,200 145,000 575,000 1,722,800
October 154,200 810,000 41,500 155,000 610,000 1,770,700
November 181,000 825,000 47,600 170,100 625,000 1,848,700
December 179,400 656,000 52,300 175,200 676,100 1,739,000

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

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