Monthly Stock Comparison 2021

Monthly Stock Comparison May 2021

Country : China
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202120202021202020212020202120202021202020212020
January732,0001,024,200674,800762,500165,900297,4001,572,9002,084,100
February739,2001,053,100728,9001,092,000162,800300,6001,630,9002,445,700
March548,800878,800617,800952,800188,600262,8001,355,2002,094,400
April507,800607,000626,400700,200219,400146,8001,353,6001,454,000
May447,900527,100744,200735,200325,400179,3001,517,5001,441,600
June 482,900 884,000  172,500  1,539,400
July 428,400 998,900  199,600  1,626,900
August 479,100 1,057,800  176,500  1,713,400
September 409,500 1,056,600  224,200  1,690,300
October 470,500 1,022,200  221,100  1,713,800
November 600,500 900,100  157,400  1,658,000
December 714,000 752,900  124,500  1,591,400

Total stocks of the 3 major vegetable oils in China increased 12.1% from previous month to reach 1.52 million MT by end of May 2021. This stock level was also 5.3% higher y-o-y.  The increase in stock was boosted by SBO & RSO stock levels where both vegetable oils’ stock were on upward trend for either 2nd or 3rd moth. In contrary, PO stock was on downward trend since March but may slowly building up in coming months due to narrowing of SBO-PL spread witnessed in May, as well as favourable import margin which may lead to higher PO import.

PO was the only major vegetable oil that witnessed a drop in stock mainly due to the favourable spread between SBO and PL, which started since Nov 2020. Although the spread had dropped below RMB1,000/MT since early May, the demand in May is expected to be strong due to the contract engaged in earlier months but deliveries only made in May.  Furthermore, the rise in temperature throughout the country made PL more favourable choice even with discount at RMB664 (average discount in May). This explain why the stock dropped in May despite the expected increase in PO import in May due to favourable import margin. But if the CPO output in both Malaysia and Indonesia are unable to cope with the rising demand of PO in summer months, the price competitiveness of PO may drop, especially with the increase in soybean output.

On the hand, the rise in SBO and RSO stock levels were also being influenced by the unfavourable premium against PL, which led to the weaker demand as compared to PL.  The SBO stock level might have been higher if not because of the slowdown of crushing activities. This was due to the poorer crushing margin as meals demand was not as strong as expected but soybean import & stock were both higher in May, reflecting the lower crushing intention. But with the anticipated large arrival of Brazilian soybean in coming months, crushers may increase its crushing activities and resulted in higher output of SBO. This will lead to the closing of price gap between PL and SBO, and affect the demand for PL if the discount drop significantly.  The demand from animal feed industry needs to be closely monitored.

The ongoing wide RSO premium against SBO & PL has possibly continue encouraging the crushers to switch from crushing soybean to rapeseed, especially with high arrival of rapeseed in Apr. Nevertheless, as the market price remain high, the consumption of RSO was rather not encouraging. This led to the build-up of RSO stock in May 2021 for the 3rd consecutive month.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : India
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202120202021202020212020202120202021202020212020
January401,695657,547118,327153,082175,553191,37141695,5751,002,041
February317,878672,605181,820234,376119,470233,2851,552619,1681,141,818
March213,162533,094138,090237,014141,126248,0852,015492,3781,020,208
April244,644497.43581,977119,136191,293251,697452517,914868,720
May314,760315,101125,73899,678162,190173,3971,075602,688589,251
June 330,207 100,256 183,899 173  615,535
July 460,302 147,634 198,013   805,949
August 420,613 206,444 178,975   806,032
September 304,957 210,691 81,048 16,552  613,248
October 353,361 151,280 93,783 7,640  606,064
November 303,123 171,356 141,032 1,232  616,743
December 376,317 142,401 157,091 15  675,824

May 2021 stocks are 2% higher than May 2020 and 16% higher than the previous month, April 2021. Whilst POP stocks rose 29% compared to Apr 2021, Soft Oils stocks rose 5%. Although total stocks rose 16% compared to previous month, absolute stock levels continue to be low, even lower than any month in 2020. These low stock levels are an indicator that people expect demand to taper off in light of the pandemic and nobody wishes to hold stocks at such high prices. Further, with new lockdown measures introduced, there has been a negative impact on demand, especially from the HORECA sector. With HORECA sector coming under lockdown stress again, demand will shift from palms to softs, which are preferred for home consumption. SFO stocks decreased by 15% compared to April 2021 whilst SBO stocks increased by 53%, reflecting the big premium for SFO. SFO stocks decreased by 6% compared to May 2020 whilst SBO stocks increased by 26%.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : Pakistan
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
  Palm Oil (MT) Soybean Oil (MT) Sunflower Oil (MT) Rapeseed Oil (MT) Other Oils (MT) Total Ending Stocks (MT)
  2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020
January 321,802 373,630 7,000 321,802 370,630
February 341,195 417,170 3,300 341,195 420,470
March 242,300 380,270 100 242,300 380,370
April 186,430 316,405 8,000 194,430 316,405
May 187,050 298,750 31,000 17,500 218,050 316,250
June   275,180   3,800   278,980
July   264,000   33,000   297,000
August   277,985   17,750   295,735
September   224,376   33,250   257,626
October   171,935   14,800   186,735
November   207,260   4,800   212,060
December   286,380     286,380
At the end of May 2021, the edible oil stocks at Port Qasim Authority (PQA) and Karachi Port Trust (KPT) have recorded a figure of 218,050 MT which is 12.15% higher than the closing stocks of the previous month. Out of the total 218,050 MT of stocks available at Port Qasim Authority and Karachi Port, the stocks of palm oil is showing the highest share of 39.23% followed by RBD palm  olein 32.96% and Soybean oil 14.92%. Palm oil and its various fractions have a share of 85.78% in the total ending stocks. The edible oil stocks in Pakistan are gradually building up after hitting the lowest level of the year in the month of April. It is anticipated that the stocks will continue to build-up in the next two months as the demand from HORECA and consumer sector will slow down due to Covid related restrictions and approaching summer months. The import of edible oil in the month of June is anticipated to stay in the range of 250,000 – 260,000 MT which is the average monthly requirement of the edible oil industry in Pakistan. Source: MPOC Market Intelligence Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month
*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.
Country : Bangladesh
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202120202021202020212020202120202021202020212020
January5,42988,77363,37377,9722,98568,802169,730
February91,86674,39282,23737,7402,984174,103115,116
March68,247116,480128,23793,8962,984196,484213,360
April70,697115,809169,57684,2172,984240,273203,010
May74,586110,466191,33916,837485265,925127,788
June 74,344 61,468 485   136,297
July 68,911 112,140 485   181,536
August 37,501 114,885 485   152,871
September 33,072 105,929 485   139,486
October 34,906 106,267 485   141,658
November 3,669 102,312 485   106,466
December 30,442 115,817    146,259

In May 2021, import quantity of total oils and fats was 252,159 tonnes, which was significantly higher by 22.39% compared to the quantity imported in May 2020. Import of CDSBO, palm oil, rapeseed/canola oil, the major three edible oils consumed in the country, witnessed noticeable increase in May 2021 respectively by 77.28%, 7.31% and 81.37% compared to May 2020, while import of soyabean, sunflower seed oil declined respectively by 30.10% and 82.30%. There was no import of CPO, CPL and RBD PO in May 2021.    

In May 2021, total 145,467 tonnes of CDSBO and palm oil were lifted from the bulk storage terminals of whcih 86,986 tonnes i.e 59.80% was palm oil and 58,481 tonnes i.e. 40.20% was CDSBO.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : USA
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)*Sunflower Oil (MT)*Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)*
 202120202021202020212020202120202021202020212020
January170,000155,000823,000689,00034,00038,300106,00072,300113,00055,4001,2460001,010,000
February170,000161,500777,000690,00034,00027,00071,00082,000113,00079,5001,165,0001,040,000
March170,000168,000786,000830,00030,00025,00071,00073,000117,00054,0001,174,0001,150,000
April170,000160,000779,000853,00034,00027,00071,00083,000113,000107,0001,167,0001,230,000
May170,000164,500686,000880,00023,00023,00067,00085,000110,00097,5001,056,0001,250,000
June 160,000 916,000 24,000 66,000 114,000 1,280,000
July 178,000 935,000 34,000 65,000 98,000 1,310,000
August 160,000 941,000 33,000 64,000 22,000 1,220,000
September 171,000 844,000 28,000 75,000 112,000 1,230,000
October 165,000 796,000 31,000 61,000 237,000 1,290,000
November 160,000 857,000 34,000 87,000 113,000 1,251,000
December 160,000 857,000 34,000 87,000 113,000 1,251,000

US ending stock reported a total of 1,056,000 MT for May 2021 which is 10% lower than the ending stock of the previous month of April 2021. From that amount, soybean oil closing stock declined by 12%, sunflower oil declined by 32%, rapeseed oil declined by 6% and no changes recorded by palm oil closing stock, when compared to the amount from the previous month. Strong domestic demand for soybean oil and soymeal is restricting US soybean export. According to USDA, US soybean exports are projected at 56.6 million MT, declining by 5.6 million MT, due to reduced supplies. High soybean crush forecast at 1 million MT will also reduce soybean export supply. US soybean oil prices spiked in April 2021, pushing the US soybean oil price near record highs.

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

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