Monthly Stock Comparison July 2021
| Country : China | ||||||||||||
| Oils and Fats Ending Stocks | ||||||||||||
| Palm Oil (MT) | Soybean Oil (MT) | Sunflower Oil (MT) | Rapeseed Oil (MT) | Other Oils (MT) | Total Ending Stocks (MT) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | |
| January | 732,000 | 1,024,200 | 674,800 | 762,500 | – | – | 165,900 | 297,400 | – | – | 1,572,900 | 2,084,100 |
| February | 739,200 | 1,053,100 | 728,900 | 1,092,000 | – | – | 162,800 | 300,600 | – | – | 1,630,900 | 2,445,700 |
| March | 548,800 | 878,800 | 617,800 | 952,800 | – | – | 188,600 | 262,800 | – | – | 1,355,200 | 2,094,400 |
| April | 507,800 | 607,000 | 626,400 | 700,200 | – | – | 219,400 | 146,800 | – | – | 1,353,600 | 1,454,000 |
| May | 447,900 | 527,100 | 744,200 | 735,200 | – | – | 325,400 | 179,300 | – | – | 1,517,500 | 1,441,600 |
| June | 341,500 | 482,900 | 842,200 | 884,000 | – | – | 354,900 | 172,500 | – | – | 1,538,600 | 1,539,400 |
| July | 339,100 | 428,400 | 903,600 | 998,900 | – | – | 418,000 | 199,600 | – | – | 1,660,700 | 1,626,900 |
| August | 450,300 | 479,100 | 850,100 | 1,057,800 | – | – | 423,100 | 176,500 | – | – | 1,723,500 | 1,713,400 |
| September | 409,500 | 1,056,600 | – | 224,200 | – | 1,690,300 | ||||||
| October | 470,500 | 1,022,200 | – | 221,100 | – | 1,713,800 | ||||||
| November | 600,500 | 900,100 | – | 157,400 | – | 1,658,000 | ||||||
| December | 714,000 | 752,900 | – | 124,500 | – | 1,591,400 | ||||||
The accumulated stock of 3 major vegetable oils in China rose further for the 4th consecutive months in August, charting a 17-month record high stock since March 2020 at 1.72 million MT, an increase of 3.8% m-o-m from Jul 2021. Nevertheless, both stock levels of PO & SBO took a turn on its trend from past few months, while stock level of RSO continue to balloon to 25-month record high in August.
Stock level of PO reversed the drop witnessed in past 5 months and recorded an m-o-m growth of 111,200 MT or 32.8% in Aug 2021. The significant jump in stock could be attributed to the anticipated sharp increase of PO arrival in August, where the reappearance of positive import margin since May might have encouraged the importer to take advantage to book more PO cargoes and led to the higher import. Average import margin of RBD PL increased from RMB82.8/MT in May to RMB507.80/MT and RMB358.80/MT in Jun and Jul respectively, which means not only that import in August will increase, but import in September may remain high. Nevertheless, the current PO stock level remain relatively low against the average monthly demand at approximately 550,000 MT and hence, this will continue to support the need to import PO to stabilise the S&D situation in China in near future.
Different from PO, stock level of SBO took a dip of 5.9% to 850,100 MT after recorded 5 consecutive months of growth. The drop in SBO could be attributed to the lower crushing activities recorded in August as the crushing margin remain negative though has narrowed from July. Besides that, the arrival of SBO in August is also anticipated to be lower based on the market intelligent gathered. Finally, the widening of PL discount against SBO in August has also led to the preference of some users to choose using PL against SBO. All these 3 factors have finally led to the increase in SBO stock for the month of Aug 2021.
The steady import of RSO in August, and also the wide price premium of RSO against SBO & PL have both caused the slowdown of RSO demand and led to the further built-up of RSO stock in Aug 2021. The RSO stock level in Aug 2021 increased by 1.2% m-o-m and 139.7% y-o-y. Such high stock has caused the trade of RSO to slow down in may lead to the decline of RSO and also crushing of RS in near future, which could be seen from the RS stock from 186,000 MT in July to 216,000 MT.
Source: MPOC Market Intelligence
Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month
*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.
| Country : India | ||||||||||||
| Oils and Fats Ending Stocks | ||||||||||||
| Palm Oil (MT) | Soybean Oil (MT) | Sunflower Oil (MT) | Rapeseed Oil (MT) | Other Oils (MT) | Total Ending Stocks (MT) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | |
| January | 401,695 | 657,547 | 118,327 | 153,082 | 175,553 | 191,371 | – | – | – | 41 | 695,575 | 1,002,041 |
| February | 317,878 | 672,605 | 181,820 | 234,376 | 119,470 | 233,285 | – | 1,552 | – | – | 619,168 | 1,141,818 |
| March | 213,162 | 533,094 | 138,090 | 237,014 | 141,126 | 248,085 | – | 2,015 | – | – | 492,378 | 1,020,208 |
| April | 244,644 | 497.435 | 81,977 | 119,136 | 191,293 | 251,697 | – | 452 | – | – | 517,914 | 868,720 |
| May | 314,760 | 315,101 | 125,738 | 99,678 | 162,190 | 173,397 | – | 1,075 | – | – | 602,688 | 589,251 |
| June | 316,770 | 330,207 | 186,535 | 100,256 | 256,980 | 183,899 | – | 173 | – | – | 760,285 | 615,535 |
| July | 219,568 | 460,302 | 223,333 | 147,634 | 185,517 | 198,013 | – | – | – | 628,418 | 805,949 | |
| August | 320,267 | 420,613 | 215,574 | 206,444 | 106,523 | 178,975 | – | – | – | 647,825 | 806,032 | |
| September | 304,957 | 210,691 | 81,048 | 16,552 | – | 613,248 | ||||||
| October | 353,361 | 151,280 | 93,783 | 7,640 | – | 606,064 | ||||||
| November | 303,123 | 171,356 | 141,032 | 1,232 | – | 616,743 | ||||||
| December | 376,317 | 142,401 | 157,091 | 15 | – | 675,824 | ||||||
August 2021 stocks are 20% lower than August 2020 and 3% higher than the previous month, July 2021. Whilst POP stocks rose 46% compared to July 2021, Soft Oils stocks fell 20%. Total stocks rose 3% compared to previous month and absolute stock levels have shown an upswing. Although stocks have risen, indicating a higher level of imports of POP, overall low stock levels are an indicator that importers are still not sure how the pandemic will play out. Further, with prices continuing to be volatile, importers are not in a hurry to increase stocks. Although Palm stocks have risen and Soft Oil stocks have fallen, ultimate composition of the import basket will depend upon how fast the HORECA sector will come back to its normal operating levels. SFO stocks fell 43% compared to July 2021 whilst SBO stocks reduced by a mere 3%. SFO stocks fell by 40% compared to August 2020 whilst SBO stocks increased by 4%.
Source: MPOC Market Intelligence
Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month
*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.
| Country : Pakistan | ||||||||||||
| Oils and Fats Ending Stocks | ||||||||||||
| Palm Oil (MT) | Soybean Oil (MT) | Sunflower Oil (MT) | Rapeseed Oil (MT) | Other Oils (MT) | Total Ending Stocks (MT) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | |
| January | 321,802 | 373,630 | – | 7,000 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 321,802 | 370,630 |
| February | 341,195 | 417,170 | – | 3,300 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 341,195 | 420,470 |
| March | 242,300 | 380,270 | – | 100 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 242,300 | 380,370 |
| April | 186,430 | 316,405 | 8,000 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 194,430 | 316,405 |
| May | 187,050 | 298,750 | 31,000 | 17,500 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 218,050 | 316,250 |
| June | 174,800 | 275,180 | 21,000 | 3,800 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 195,800 | 278,980 |
| July | 168,810 | 264,000 | 21,900 | 33,000 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 190,710 | 297,000 |
| August | 271,255 | 277,985 | 15,900 | 17,750 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 287,155 | 295,735 |
| September | 224,376 | 33,250 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 257,626 | |||
| October | 171,935 | 14,800 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 186,735 | |||
| November | 207,260 | 4,800 | – | – | – | – | — | – | 212,060 | |||
| December | 286,380 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 286,380 | |||
At the end of August 2021, the edible oil stocks at Port Qasim Authority (PQA) and Karachi Port Trust (KPT) have recorded a figure of 287,155 MT which is 50.57% higher than the closing stocks of the previous month.
First week of August saw high arrivals of oils and fats as four ships carrying palm oil cargo which were due to discharge in July were pushed to August due to congestion at ports. The increase was also attributed to high bookings and arrivals of oils and fats in these two months as the industry was poorly covered for the months of June and July due to consistent high prices and anticipation of duty reduction in August. The stocks at local parts are likely to maintain the level of 250,000 MT as the arrivals in the following two months will be in the excess of 300,000 MT.
Out of the total 287,155 MT of stocks available at Port Qasim Authority and Karachi Port, the stocks of palm olein is showing the highest share of 52.74% followed by RBD palm oil 32.56% and Soybean oil 05.54%. Palm oil and its various fractions have a share of 94.46% in the total ending stocks.
Source: MPOC Market Intelligence
Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month
*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.
| Country : Bangladesh | ||||||||||||
| Oils and Fats Ending Stocks | ||||||||||||
| Palm Oil (MT) | Soybean Oil (MT) | Sunflower Oil (MT) | Rapeseed Oil (MT) | Other Oils (MT) | Total Ending Stocks (MT) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | |
| January | 5,429 | 88,773 | 63,373 | 77,972 | – | 2,985 | – | – | – | – | 68,802 | 169,730 |
| February | 91,866 | 74,392 | 82,237 | 37,740 | – | 2,984 | – | – | – | – | 174,103 | 115,116 |
| March | 68,247 | 116,480 | 128,237 | 93,896 | – | 2,984 | – | – | – | – | 196,484 | 213,360 |
| April | 70,697 | 115,809 | 169,576 | 84,217 | – | 2,984 | – | – | – | – | 240,273 | 203,010 |
| May | 74,586 | 110,466 | 191,339 | 16,837 | – | 485 | – | – | – | – | 265,925 | 127,788 |
| June | 68,586 | 74,344 | 176,428 | 61,468 | 485 | – | – | 245,014 | 136,297 | |||
| July | 93,003 | 68,911 | 172,841 | 112,140 | 485 | – | – | 265,844 | 181,536 | |||
| August | 37,501 | 114,885 | 485 | – | – | 152,871 | ||||||
| September | 33,072 | 105,929 | 485 | – | – | 139,486 | ||||||
| October | 34,906 | 106,267 | 485 | – | – | 141,658 | ||||||
| November | 3,669 | 102,312 | 485 | – | – | 106,466 | ||||||
| December | 30,442 | 115,817 | – | – | – | 146,259 | ||||||
In July 2021, import quantity of total oils and fats was 201,554 tonnes, which was noticeably lower by 7.94% compared to the quantity imported in July 2020. Significant decline in import of CDSBO and rapeseed/canola oil in July 2021 respectively by 64.96% and 100% compared to July 2020 contribute mainly in the said decline, while import of palm oil (RBD PL and RBD PO together), soybean, coconut oil and shortenings/ vanaspati witnessed positive growth. There was no import of CPO and CPL in July 2021.
In June 2021, total only 144,906 tonnes of CDSBO and palm oil were lifted from the bulk storage terminals of which 93,839 tonnes i.e 64.76% was palm oil and rest 51,067 tonnes i.e. 35.24% was CDSBO. Due to continuous lock down and restriction on movements, trading volume vis-a-vis lifting of edible oils from bulk storage facilities has been declined significantly compared to past.
Source: MPOC Market Intelligence
Due to unforeseen circumstances, stock figures for Bangladesh will be delayed
*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.
| Country : USA | ||||||||||||
| Oils and Fats Ending Stocks | ||||||||||||
| Palm Oil (MT) | Soybean Oil (MT)* | Sunflower Oil (MT)* | Rapeseed Oil (MT) | Other Oils (MT) | Total Ending Stocks (MT)* | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | |
| January | 170,000 | 155,000 | 823,000 | 689,000 | 34,000 | 38,300 | 106,000 | 72,300 | 113,000 | 55,400 | 1,246000 | 1,010,000 |
| February | 170,000 | 161,500 | 777,000 | 690,000 | 34,000 | 27,000 | 71,000 | 82,000 | 113,000 | 79,500 | 1,165,000 | 1,040,000 |
| March | 170,000 | 168,000 | 786,000 | 830,000 | 30,000 | 25,000 | 71,000 | 73,000 | 117,000 | 54,000 | 1,174,000 | 1,150,000 |
| April | 170,000 | 160,000 | 779,000 | 853,000 | 34,000 | 27,000 | 71,000 | 83,000 | 113,000 | 107,000 | 1,167,000 | 1,230,000 |
| May | 170,000 | 164,500 | 686,000 | 880,000 | 23,000 | 23,000 | 67,000 | 85,000 | 110,000 | 97,500 | 1,056,000 | 1,250,000 |
| June | 170,000 | 160,000 | 675,000 | 916,000 | 23,000 | 24,000 | 60,000 | 66,000 | 113,000 | 114,000 | 1,041,000 | 1,280,000 |
| July | 170,000 | 178,000 | 659,000 | 935,000 | 23,000 | 34,000 | 60,000 | 65,000 | 113,000 | 98,000 | 1,025,000 | 1,310,000 |
| August | 160,000 | 941,000 | 33,000 | 64,000 | 22,000 | 1,220,000 | ||||||
| September | 171,000 | 844,000 | 28,000 | 75,000 | 112,000 | 1,230,000 | ||||||
| October | 165,000 | 796,000 | 31,000 | 61,000 | 237,000 | 1,290,000 | ||||||
| November | 160,000 | 857,000 | 34,000 | 87,000 | 113,000 | 1,251,000 | ||||||
| December | 160,000 | 857,000 | 34,000 | 87,000 | 113,000 | 1,251,000 | ||||||
US ending stock reported a total of 1,025,000 MT for July 2021 which is 1.5% lower than the ending stock of the previous month of June 2021. From that amount, soybean oil closing stock declined by 2.3% and no changes recorded by palm oil, sunflower oil and rapeseed oil closing stock, when compared to the amount from the previous month. U.S. soybean oil prices fell in July, while Argentina and Brazil prices rose. U.S. soybean oil proces have eased on reduced demand. Brazil prices are up on expanding domestic demand from its biodiesel industry urging oil imports; Argentina prices are up on stronger demand and reduced competition. Argentina cut biodiesel blending requirements in half, reducing the percentage of biodiesel required for blending in the domestic market to 5%. This is expected to increase the quantity of soybean oil available for export by nearly 500,000 tons based on historic blend rates.
*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.
