Monthly Stock Comparison May 2021
| Country : China | ||||||||||||
| Oils and Fats Ending Stocks | ||||||||||||
| Palm Oil (MT) | Soybean Oil (MT) | Sunflower Oil (MT) | Rapeseed Oil (MT) | Other Oils (MT) | Total Ending Stocks (MT) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | |
| January | 732,000 | 1,024,200 | 674,800 | 762,500 | – | – | 165,900 | 297,400 | – | – | 1,572,900 | 2,084,100 |
| February | 739,200 | 1,053,100 | 728,900 | 1,092,000 | – | – | 162,800 | 300,600 | – | – | 1,630,900 | 2,445,700 |
| March | 548,800 | 878,800 | 617,800 | 952,800 | – | – | 188,600 | 262,800 | – | – | 1,355,200 | 2,094,400 |
| April | 507,800 | 607,000 | 626,400 | 700,200 | – | – | 219,400 | 146,800 | – | – | 1,353,600 | 1,454,000 |
| May | 447,900 | 527,100 | 744,200 | 735,200 | – | – | 325,400 | 179,300 | – | – | 1,517,500 | 1,441,600 |
| June | 482,900 | 884,000 | – | 172,500 | – | 1,539,400 | ||||||
| July | 428,400 | 998,900 | – | 199,600 | – | 1,626,900 | ||||||
| August | 479,100 | 1,057,800 | – | 176,500 | – | 1,713,400 | ||||||
| September | 409,500 | 1,056,600 | – | 224,200 | – | 1,690,300 | ||||||
| October | 470,500 | 1,022,200 | – | 221,100 | – | 1,713,800 | ||||||
| November | 600,500 | 900,100 | – | 157,400 | – | 1,658,000 | ||||||
| December | 714,000 | 752,900 | – | 124,500 | – | 1,591,400 | ||||||
Total stocks of the 3 major vegetable oils in China increased 12.1% from previous month to reach 1.52 million MT by end of May 2021. This stock level was also 5.3% higher y-o-y. The increase in stock was boosted by SBO & RSO stock levels where both vegetable oils’ stock were on upward trend for either 2nd or 3rd moth. In contrary, PO stock was on downward trend since March but may slowly building up in coming months due to narrowing of SBO-PL spread witnessed in May, as well as favourable import margin which may lead to higher PO import.
PO was the only major vegetable oil that witnessed a drop in stock mainly due to the favourable spread between SBO and PL, which started since Nov 2020. Although the spread had dropped below RMB1,000/MT since early May, the demand in May is expected to be strong due to the contract engaged in earlier months but deliveries only made in May. Furthermore, the rise in temperature throughout the country made PL more favourable choice even with discount at RMB664 (average discount in May). This explain why the stock dropped in May despite the expected increase in PO import in May due to favourable import margin. But if the CPO output in both Malaysia and Indonesia are unable to cope with the rising demand of PO in summer months, the price competitiveness of PO may drop, especially with the increase in soybean output.
On the hand, the rise in SBO and RSO stock levels were also being influenced by the unfavourable premium against PL, which led to the weaker demand as compared to PL. The SBO stock level might have been higher if not because of the slowdown of crushing activities. This was due to the poorer crushing margin as meals demand was not as strong as expected but soybean import & stock were both higher in May, reflecting the lower crushing intention. But with the anticipated large arrival of Brazilian soybean in coming months, crushers may increase its crushing activities and resulted in higher output of SBO. This will lead to the closing of price gap between PL and SBO, and affect the demand for PL if the discount drop significantly. The demand from animal feed industry needs to be closely monitored.
The ongoing wide RSO premium against SBO & PL has possibly continue encouraging the crushers to switch from crushing soybean to rapeseed, especially with high arrival of rapeseed in Apr. Nevertheless, as the market price remain high, the consumption of RSO was rather not encouraging. This led to the build-up of RSO stock in May 2021 for the 3rd consecutive month.
Source: MPOC Market Intelligence
Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month
*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.
| Country : India | ||||||||||||
| Oils and Fats Ending Stocks | ||||||||||||
| Palm Oil (MT) | Soybean Oil (MT) | Sunflower Oil (MT) | Rapeseed Oil (MT) | Other Oils (MT) | Total Ending Stocks (MT) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | |
| January | 401,695 | 657,547 | 118,327 | 153,082 | 175,553 | 191,371 | – | – | – | 41 | 695,575 | 1,002,041 |
| February | 317,878 | 672,605 | 181,820 | 234,376 | 119,470 | 233,285 | – | 1,552 | – | – | 619,168 | 1,141,818 |
| March | 213,162 | 533,094 | 138,090 | 237,014 | 141,126 | 248,085 | – | 2,015 | – | – | 492,378 | 1,020,208 |
| April | 244,644 | 497.435 | 81,977 | 119,136 | 191,293 | 251,697 | – | 452 | – | – | 517,914 | 868,720 |
| May | 314,760 | 315,101 | 125,738 | 99,678 | 162,190 | 173,397 | – | 1,075 | – | – | 602,688 | 589,251 |
| June | 330,207 | 100,256 | 183,899 | 173 | – | 615,535 | ||||||
| July | 460,302 | 147,634 | 198,013 | – | – | 805,949 | ||||||
| August | 420,613 | 206,444 | 178,975 | – | – | 806,032 | ||||||
| September | 304,957 | 210,691 | 81,048 | 16,552 | – | 613,248 | ||||||
| October | 353,361 | 151,280 | 93,783 | 7,640 | – | 606,064 | ||||||
| November | 303,123 | 171,356 | 141,032 | 1,232 | – | 616,743 | ||||||
| December | 376,317 | 142,401 | 157,091 | 15 | – | 675,824 | ||||||
May 2021 stocks are 2% higher than May 2020 and 16% higher than the previous month, April 2021. Whilst POP stocks rose 29% compared to Apr 2021, Soft Oils stocks rose 5%. Although total stocks rose 16% compared to previous month, absolute stock levels continue to be low, even lower than any month in 2020. These low stock levels are an indicator that people expect demand to taper off in light of the pandemic and nobody wishes to hold stocks at such high prices. Further, with new lockdown measures introduced, there has been a negative impact on demand, especially from the HORECA sector. With HORECA sector coming under lockdown stress again, demand will shift from palms to softs, which are preferred for home consumption. SFO stocks decreased by 15% compared to April 2021 whilst SBO stocks increased by 53%, reflecting the big premium for SFO. SFO stocks decreased by 6% compared to May 2020 whilst SBO stocks increased by 26%.
Source: MPOC Market Intelligence
Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month
*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.
| Country : Pakistan | ||||||||||||
| Oils and Fats Ending Stocks | ||||||||||||
| Palm Oil (MT) | Soybean Oil (MT) | Sunflower Oil (MT) | Rapeseed Oil (MT) | Other Oils (MT) | Total Ending Stocks (MT) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | |
| January | 321,802 | 373,630 | – | 7,000 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 321,802 | 370,630 |
| February | 341,195 | 417,170 | – | 3,300 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 341,195 | 420,470 |
| March | 242,300 | 380,270 | – | 100 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 242,300 | 380,370 |
| April | 186,430 | 316,405 | 8,000 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 194,430 | 316,405 |
| May | 187,050 | 298,750 | 31,000 | 17,500 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 218,050 | 316,250 |
| June | 275,180 | 3,800 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 278,980 | |||
| July | 264,000 | 33,000 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 297,000 | |||
| August | 277,985 | 17,750 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 295,735 | |||
| September | 224,376 | 33,250 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 257,626 | |||
| October | 171,935 | 14,800 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 186,735 | |||
| November | 207,260 | 4,800 | – | – | – | – | — | – | 212,060 | |||
| December | 286,380 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 286,380 | |||
| Country : Bangladesh | ||||||||||||
| Oils and Fats Ending Stocks | ||||||||||||
| Palm Oil (MT) | Soybean Oil (MT) | Sunflower Oil (MT) | Rapeseed Oil (MT) | Other Oils (MT) | Total Ending Stocks (MT) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | |
| January | 5,429 | 88,773 | 63,373 | 77,972 | – | 2,985 | – | – | – | – | 68,802 | 169,730 |
| February | 91,866 | 74,392 | 82,237 | 37,740 | – | 2,984 | – | – | – | – | 174,103 | 115,116 |
| March | 68,247 | 116,480 | 128,237 | 93,896 | – | 2,984 | – | – | – | – | 196,484 | 213,360 |
| April | 70,697 | 115,809 | 169,576 | 84,217 | – | 2,984 | – | – | – | – | 240,273 | 203,010 |
| May | 74,586 | 110,466 | 191,339 | 16,837 | – | 485 | – | – | – | – | 265,925 | 127,788 |
| June | 74,344 | 61,468 | 485 | – | – | 136,297 | ||||||
| July | 68,911 | 112,140 | 485 | – | – | 181,536 | ||||||
| August | 37,501 | 114,885 | 485 | – | – | 152,871 | ||||||
| September | 33,072 | 105,929 | 485 | – | – | 139,486 | ||||||
| October | 34,906 | 106,267 | 485 | – | – | 141,658 | ||||||
| November | 3,669 | 102,312 | 485 | – | – | 106,466 | ||||||
| December | 30,442 | 115,817 | – | – | – | 146,259 | ||||||
In May 2021, import quantity of total oils and fats was 252,159 tonnes, which was significantly higher by 22.39% compared to the quantity imported in May 2020. Import of CDSBO, palm oil, rapeseed/canola oil, the major three edible oils consumed in the country, witnessed noticeable increase in May 2021 respectively by 77.28%, 7.31% and 81.37% compared to May 2020, while import of soyabean, sunflower seed oil declined respectively by 30.10% and 82.30%. There was no import of CPO, CPL and RBD PO in May 2021.
In May 2021, total 145,467 tonnes of CDSBO and palm oil were lifted from the bulk storage terminals of whcih 86,986 tonnes i.e 59.80% was palm oil and 58,481 tonnes i.e. 40.20% was CDSBO.Source: MPOC Market Intelligence
Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month
*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.
| Country : USA | ||||||||||||
| Oils and Fats Ending Stocks | ||||||||||||
| Palm Oil (MT) | Soybean Oil (MT)* | Sunflower Oil (MT)* | Rapeseed Oil (MT) | Other Oils (MT) | Total Ending Stocks (MT)* | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | |
| January | 170,000 | 155,000 | 823,000 | 689,000 | 34,000 | 38,300 | 106,000 | 72,300 | 113,000 | 55,400 | 1,246000 | 1,010,000 |
| February | 170,000 | 161,500 | 777,000 | 690,000 | 34,000 | 27,000 | 71,000 | 82,000 | 113,000 | 79,500 | 1,165,000 | 1,040,000 |
| March | 170,000 | 168,000 | 786,000 | 830,000 | 30,000 | 25,000 | 71,000 | 73,000 | 117,000 | 54,000 | 1,174,000 | 1,150,000 |
| April | 170,000 | 160,000 | 779,000 | 853,000 | 34,000 | 27,000 | 71,000 | 83,000 | 113,000 | 107,000 | 1,167,000 | 1,230,000 |
| May | 170,000 | 164,500 | 686,000 | 880,000 | 23,000 | 23,000 | 67,000 | 85,000 | 110,000 | 97,500 | 1,056,000 | 1,250,000 |
| June | 160,000 | 916,000 | 24,000 | 66,000 | 114,000 | 1,280,000 | ||||||
| July | 178,000 | 935,000 | 34,000 | 65,000 | 98,000 | 1,310,000 | ||||||
| August | 160,000 | 941,000 | 33,000 | 64,000 | 22,000 | 1,220,000 | ||||||
| September | 171,000 | 844,000 | 28,000 | 75,000 | 112,000 | 1,230,000 | ||||||
| October | 165,000 | 796,000 | 31,000 | 61,000 | 237,000 | 1,290,000 | ||||||
| November | 160,000 | 857,000 | 34,000 | 87,000 | 113,000 | 1,251,000 | ||||||
| December | 160,000 | 857,000 | 34,000 | 87,000 | 113,000 | 1,251,000 | ||||||
US ending stock reported a total of 1,056,000 MT for May 2021 which is 10% lower than the ending stock of the previous month of April 2021. From that amount, soybean oil closing stock declined by 12%, sunflower oil declined by 32%, rapeseed oil declined by 6% and no changes recorded by palm oil closing stock, when compared to the amount from the previous month. Strong domestic demand for soybean oil and soymeal is restricting US soybean export. According to USDA, US soybean exports are projected at 56.6 million MT, declining by 5.6 million MT, due to reduced supplies. High soybean crush forecast at 1 million MT will also reduce soybean export supply. US soybean oil prices spiked in April 2021, pushing the US soybean oil price near record highs.
*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.
