Recovery In China’s Soybean Crushing Activities Poses Threat To Malaysian Palm Oil Imports In China

The weekly crushing volume of soybeans in China had surged in mid-February after a sharp fall in the early part of the month. Soymeal price rose from RMB2,896/MT on 31 December 2019 to RMB3,253/MT on 31st March 2020 (April 1, 2020, Sunsirs Commodity Data Group). JC Intelligence Shanghai estimated that crushers in China are currently making a profit between RMB94 to RMB132 per MT on soybean import. Forecast made by the Chinese Agricultural Ministry shows a positive outlook for China’s soybean crushing industry. From January to February 2020, compared to the same period last year, China’s import of soybeans grew by 14.2% or 1.6 million MT to 13.5 million MT (MPOC, Shanghai Office). However, this is a far cry compared to the active crushing activities fueled by attractive crushing margin, coupled with the subsequent low arrival of soybeans in March and April., The crushers are forced to depend partly on the existing stock to keep the crushing plants running. According to CNGOIC, China’s soybean import in March and April 2020 is estimated to be only about 4.3 million MT and 6.6 million MT respectively. This has led to a drop in the soybean stock from 3.88 million MT recorded by the end of 2019 to only 2.16 million MT by the end of March 2020.