China (Jan – Aug) 2020

Malaysian Palm Oil Exports Performance to China
(Jan – Aug 2020)
A Review on MPO Export Performance

For the period from January-August 2020, Malaysia’s palm oil exports to China increased by 438,747 MT or by 31.1% to 1,848,433 MT attributed to the decline in Indonesia’s palm oil exports. This drop-in Indonesia’s exports benefited Malaysia as it is expected to increase Malaysia’s palm oil market share in the country compare to the preceding year. From the latest available figure for Jan.-July period, Malaysia’s palm oil share rose from 28.0% to 49.6% compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s palm oil market share drop from 71.8% to 49.9% for the same period in consideration. During this period, Indonesia experience higher domestic usage of palm oil in its biodiesel sector due to the implementation of Indonesia’s B30 mandate from B20 on 1 January 2000.  Indonesia’s government projected that the implementation of B30 mandate from B20 on 1st January 2020 will absorb an additional 2.4 million MT of palm oil into the domestic biodiesel market in 2020. (Source : theSundailymail, 23rd December 2019). The anticipated drop in Indonesia’s CPO production is expected to reduce further a large portion of the availability of Indonesia’s supply to export to the world including China.   For 2020, Oilworld forecasted that the Indonesia’s palm oil production will drop by 1.2 million MT to 43 million MT. 

Table 1 : Malaysian palm oil export to China/HK (MT)
 Jan-Aug 2020Jan-Aug 2019Difference (MT)Difference (%)
Source : MPOB

As for palm products, RBD Palm Olein, RBD Palm Stearin, and Crude Palm stearin are the major types of palm oil exported accounting for 95.0% of the total exports. This share is 2.3% higher than the 92.7% in the corresponding period last year. There was a 40.6% increase in CPS  import by 55,230 MT to 191,354 MT. Meanwhile, RBD PS imports increase by 41.1% or  113,891 MT to 391,202 MT.

Table 2: Malaysian Palm Products Export to China / HK
(By Products)
ProductJan – August 2020Jan – August        2019Diff (MT)Diff (%)
RBD PL1,173,894893,518280,37631.4
RBD PS391,202277,311113,89141.1
Source: MPOB

On a month to month basis, Malaysia’s palm oil exports to China decrease by 2.4% or 7,196 MT from 289,389 MT in July 2020 to 296,585 MT in August 2020.  August 2020 exports of 296,585 MT is 518 MT or 0.2% lower than the preceding year’s exports of 297,103 MT. With China’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and lower availability of Indonesian PO for exports, Malaysia’s palm oil exports to China in the coming months are expected to improve compared to the same period last year. China’s low palm oil inventory in August 2020 is another factor that is expected to help boost higher Malaysian palm oil exports to the country. In August 2020, China’s palm oil inventory drop by 26.4% or 171,900 MT to 479,100 MT compared to the same period last year.

On an annual basis, we anticipate China’s total palm oil import will not be strong compared to last year due to the recovery of soybean crushing activity. This is fuel by rising hog demand as the ASF outbreak subside. The development will encourage more soybean crushing and higher production of soyabean oil. However, it is anticipated that Malaysia’s palm oil exports to China in 2020 will be higher compared to 2019 due to the anticipated drop in Indonesian PO exports.  

Source : MPOB


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