Monthly Stock Comparison 2021

Monthly Stock Comparison 2021

Country : China
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
  Palm Oil (MT) Soybean Oil (MT) Sunflower Oil (MT) Rapeseed Oil (MT) Other Oils (MT) Total Ending Stocks (MT)
  2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020
January 732,000 1,024,200 674,800 762,500 165,900 297,400 1,572,900 2,084,100
February 739,200 1,053,100 728,900 1,092,000 162,800 300,600 1,630,900 2,445,700
March 548,800 878,800 617,800 952,800 188,600 262,800 1,355,200 2,094,400
April 507,800 607,000 626,400 700,200 219,400 146,800 1,353,600 1,454,000
May 447,900 527,100 744,200 735,200 325,400 179,300 1,517,500 1,441,600
June 341,500 482,900 842,200 884,000 354,900 172,500 1,538,600 1,539,400
July 339,100 428,400 903,600 998,900 418,000 199,600 1,660,700 1,626,900
August 450,300 479,100 850,100 1,057,800 423,100 176,500 1,723,500 1,713,400
September 398,300 409,500 826,300 1,056,600 413,600 224,200 1,638,200 1,690,300
October 490,400 470,500 790,700 1,022,200 387,200 221,100 1,668,300 1,713,800
November   600,500   900,100     157,400     1,658,000
December   714,000   752,900     124,500     1,591,400
The decline of total stock of the 3 major vegetable oils in September was short-lived as the stock increased in October and recorded a marginal increase of 1.8% or 30,100 MT by end of October 2021. The increase came from the sharp increase of PO stock which was big enough to offset the drop in both SBO & RSO’s stock in the same month. Stock of PO witnessed sharp increase in October due to 1 major reason, the discount of RBD PL against SBO.  In Oct, discount of PL against SBO has dropped from an average of RMB517.50/MT in Sep to only RMB215.00/MT in Oct. If factor in the cost to fractionate the PL to lower SMP olein for the use in colder temperature as winter is approaching, the PL is at a premium. As such, the demand and consumption of RBD PL is deemed to slow down.  Furthermore, the PO import in Oct (despite the absence of official import data) is forecasted to be lower than Sep simply because of the sharp drop of import margin from RMB358.80/MT recorded in Jul to –RMB92.60 in August which will deter importers from making purchase order and bring in the cargoes in Oct. Subsequently, PO’s stock level by end Oct increased by 23.1% or 92,100 MT! On the other hand, due to the arrival of winter season, most catering and small food manufacturers will slowly switch to soft oil, and this encourages the consumption of SBO in China. Although the crushing margin has slowly improved, the lower than expected arrival of soybean in September has led to significant drop in soybean crushing activities. Besides that, the import of SBO in September dropped more than 50% against August, testified the lower SBO stock by end Sep.  Although it is expected that the import of soybean and crushing activities will be higher in view of the further improvement in crushing margin, the switching of PL to soft oil supported higher use of SBO, and this answers why the stock level of SBO dropped 4.3% by the end of Oct. Being a type of soft oil, demand for RSO will also be relatively higher in winter. However, due to the lower global rapeseed output this year, rapeseed crushed volume has been almost unchanged in Jan-Sep.  This led to the marginal growth of RSO output in Jan-Sep. Besides that the build-up of RSO stock and high RSO prices also influence the crushers to run the plants in lower capacities, which explained why the rapeseed’s stock has been continuously building up since Aug.  Coupled with the slowdown in RSO import growth since 3rd quarter of 2021, this has caused the RSO stock to drop 6.4% (m-o-m) by end Oct. It is anticipated that the RSO stock will continue to drop as the global supplies in experiencing tightness and hence, the demand has to be satisfied through the stock in the country in next few months.
Source: MPOC Market Intelligence Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month *Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.
Country : India
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202120202021202020212020202120202021202020212020
January401,695657,547118,327153,082175,553191,37141695,5751,002,041
February317,878672,605181,820234,376119,470233,2851,552619,1681,141,818
March213,162533,094138,090237,014141,126248,0852,015492,3781,020,208
April244,644497.43581,977119,136191,293251,697452517,914868,720
May314,760315,101125,73899,678162,190173,3971,075602,688589,251
June316,770330,207186,535100,256256,980183,899173760,285615,535
July219,568460,302223,333147,634185,517198,013628,418805,949
August320,267420,613215,574206,444106,523178,9755,641647,825806,032
September602,429304,957175,852210,691131,55981,04810,41716,552920,257613,248
October420,691353,361108,025151,28087,18593,78315,2337,640631,134606,064
November 303,123 171,356 141,032 1,232  616,743
December 376,317 142,401 157,091 15  675,824

October 2021 stocks are 4% higher than October 2020 and 31% lower than the previous month, September 2021. The previous month was an anomaly as it showed a sharp increase compared to all other months in the year. Whilst POP stocks fell 30% compared to September 2021, Soft Oils stocks fell 31%. Total stocks fell 31% compared to previous month, coming down to levels not much different from other months, whereas Sept had registered a sharp increase. Although prices continue to rise, RBD Olein imports have increased sharply, thereby increasing POP imports and stocks, due to being included in Free List. Both Palm and Soft Oil stocks have fallen, but ultimate composition of the import basket will depend upon how fast the HORECA sector will come back to its normal operating levels. SFO stocks fell 34% compared to September 2021 whilst SBO stocks reduced by 39%. SFO stocks fell by 7% compared to October 2020 whilst SBO stocks fell 29%.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : Pakistan
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202120202021202020212020202120202021202020212020
January321,802373,6307,000321,802370,630
February341,195417,1703,300341,195420,470
March242,300380,270100242,300380,370
April186,430316,4058,000194,430316,405
May187,050298,75031,00017,500218,050316,250
June174,800275,18021,0003,800195,800278,980
July168,810264,00021,90033,000190,710297,000
August271,255277,98515,90017,750287,155295,735
September297,436224,37613,90033,250311,336257,626
October331,496171,93520,90014,800352,396186,735
November 207,260 4,800 212,060
December 286,380  286,380

At the end of October 2021, the edible oil stocks at Port Qasim Authority (PQA) and Karachi Port Trust (KPT) have recorded a figure of 352,396 MT which is 13.19% higher than the closing stocks of the previous month.

The imports of palm oil in Pakistan maintained its momentum and the total arrival in the month of October is estimated to be over 310,000 MT. This has resulted in further building up of the edible oils stocks which is currently slightly over monthly average and is likely to stay at this level in November as well. The consumption of oils and fats is likely to pick up in the last two months and the imports of palm oil is anticipated to take a slight dip due to consistent high prices. This may result in reduction in total stocks towards the end of 2021.

Out of the total 352,396 MT of stocks available at Port Qasim Authority and Karachi Port, the stocks of palm oil is showing the highest share of 42.99% followed by RBD palm olein 40.41% and soybean oil 05.93%. Palm oil and its various fractions have a share of 94.07% in the total ending stocks.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : Bangladesh
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202120202021202020212020202120202021202020212020
January5,42988,77363,37377,9722,98568,802169,730
February91,86674,39282,23737,7402,984174,103115,116
March68,247116,480128,23793,8962,984196,484213,360
April70,697115,809169,57684,2172,984240,273203,010
May74,586110,466191,33916,837485265,925127,788
June68,58674,344176,42861,468485245,014136,297
July93,00368,911172,841112,140485265,844181,536
August28,70037,50148,720114,88548577,420152,871
September24,46033,07260,470105,92948584,930139,486
October45,86034,90647,995106,26748593,855141,658
November 3,669 102,312 485   106,466
December 30,442 115,817    146,259

Import quantity of RBD Olein in Oct 2021 was 151404 tonnes which was 45.16% higher compared to the quantity imported in Oct 2020, No Import quantity of RBD PO in Oct 2021 and Oct 2020. Import quantity of CDSBO in Oct 2021 was 92,170 tonnes, which witnessed a significant increased by 76.46% compared to Oct 2020. There was no import data for CPL, refined soybean, and blended vegetable oil, Sunflower Seed Oil in Oct   2021. 

In Oct 2021, total only 230,649 tonnes of CDSBO & RBD PL were lifted from the bulk storage terminals of which 130,004 tonnes i.e 56.36% was palm oil and rest 104,645 tonnes i.e. 43.64% was CDSBO. Due to normalized people activities post lockdown, trading volume vis-a-vis lifting of edible oils from bulk storage facilities has been increased compared to past, and gradually improving the consumption

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Due to unforeseen circumstances, stock figures for Bangladesh will be delayed

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : USA
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)*Sunflower Oil (MT)*Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)*
 202120202021202020212020202120202021202020212020
January170,000155,000823,000689,00034,00038,300106,00072,300113,00055,4001,2460001,010,000
February170,000161,500777,000690,00034,00027,00071,00082,000113,00079,5001,165,0001,040,000
March170,000168,000786,000830,00030,00025,00071,00073,000117,00054,0001,174,0001,150,000
April170,000160,000779,000853,00034,00027,00071,00083,000113,000107,0001,167,0001,230,000
May170,000164,500686,000880,00023,00023,00067,00085,000110,00097,5001,056,0001,250,000
June170,000160,000675,000916,00023,00024,00060,00066,000113,000114,0001,041,0001,280,000
July170,000178,000659,000935,00023,00034,00060,00065,000113,00098,0001,025,0001,310,000
August170,000160,000670,000941,00023,00033,00062,90064,000113,00022,0001,038,0001,220,000
September170,000171,000815,000844,00023,00028,00060,00075,000113,000112,0001,181,0001,230,000
October154,000165,000867,000796,00023,00031,00058,00061,000113,000237,0001,215,0001,290,000
November 160,000 857,000 34,000 87,000 113,000 1,251,000
December 160,000 857,000 34,000 87,000 113,000 1,251,000

US ending stock reported a total of 1,215,000 MT for October 2021 which is 2.8% higher than the ending stock of the previous month of September 2021. From that amount, soybean oil closing stock increased by 6.38% while palm oil and rapeseed oil closing stock decreased by 9.41% and 3.33% respectively when compared to the amount from the previous month. No changes were recorded by sunflower oil closing stock. US soybean oil ending stock has raised higher with reduced export, reflecting lower global imports and lower shipments through October 2021. Brazilian soybean prices are falling amidst a rapid planting season. The lower prices make Brazilian soybean crops increasingly more competitive compared to US soybean prices, which limit US prices and export volumes amid peak shipping season.

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

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