Monthly Stock Comparison 2021

Monthly Stock Comparison May 2021

Country : China
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202120202021202020212020202120202021202020212020
January732,0001,024,200674,800762,500165,900297,4001,572,9002,084,100
February739,2001,053,100728,9001,092,000162,800300,6001,630,9002,445,700
March548,800878,800617,800952,800188,600262,8001,355,2002,094,400
April507,800607,000626,400700,200219,400146,8001,353,6001,454,000
May447,900527,100744,200735,200325,400179,3001,517,5001,441,600
June341,500482,900842,200884,000 354,900172,500 1,538,6001,539,400
July 428,400 998,900  199,600  1,626,900
August 479,100 1,057,800  176,500  1,713,400
September 409,500 1,056,600  224,200  1,690,300
October 470,500 1,022,200  221,100  1,713,800
November 600,500 900,100  157,400  1,658,000
December 714,000 752,900  124,500  1,591,400

The accumulative stocks of 3 major vegetable oils in China further increased marginally by 1.4% to 1.54 million MT at the end of June 2021. The increase in stock was continuously boosted by the increase in SBO & RSO stocks where both vegetable oils’ stocks were on upward trend for 3rd and 4th consecutive month respectively.  On the other hand, PO stock level extended its drop since March and broke the 400,000 MT level which was not seen in past 4 years. Nevertheless, the PO stock is expected to rise in coming months due to narrowing of SBO-PL spread witnessed since May, as well as favourable import margin which may lead to higher PO import but stagnating demand.

PO was the only major vegetable oil that witnessed a drop in stock mainly due to the favourable spread between SBO and PL, which started since Nov 2020, and has led to aggressive selling among the refiners who were able to fractionate it to lower melting points. Although the spread had dropped below RMB700/MT since early May, the demand in June is expected to remain strong due to the contractual volume engaged in earlier months but deliveries only made in June.  Furthermore, the rise in temperature throughout the country made PL more favourable choice even with discount at RMB695 (average discount in Jun). This explain why the stock dropped in Jun despite the expected increase in PO import in Jun due to favourable import margin. But if the CPO output in both Malaysia and Indonesia are unable to cope with the rising demand of PO in summer months, the price competitiveness of PO may drop, especially with the increase in soybean oil output due to large arrival of soybean, results in increasing crushing activities.

In contrary, the rise in SBO and RSO stock levels were also being influenced by the unfavourable premium against PL, which led to the weaker demand as compared to PL.  The sharp jump in SBO stock level by 13.2% or almost 100,000 MT signifies the rise in crushing activities with the large arrival of Brazilian soybean since May.  Although the official import data is not available for June, the crushing activities is also expected to remain strong this month in response to the higher arrival of soybean where soybean stock also increased by nearly 900,000 MT M-o-M.  Nevertheless, as the global oils & fats supplies remain tight this year, the PL-SBO discount may not narrowed immediately as the soybean crushing margin may remain very unattractive.

The ongoing wide RSO premium against SBO & PL has possibly continue encouraging the crushers to switch from crushing soybean to rapeseed, especially with high arrival of rapeseed in Apr & May. The higher crushing of rapeseed was also due to the rise in aquafeed which rapeseed meal is the preferred feed ingredients against other meals.  Nevertheless, as the market price of RSO remain at large premium against SBO & PO, the consumption of RSO was rather not encouraging. This led to the build-up of RSO stock in June 2021 by 9%.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : India
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202120202021202020212020202120202021202020212020
January401,695657,547118,327153,082175,553191,37141695,5751,002,041
February317,878672,605181,820234,376119,470233,2851,552619,1681,141,818
March213,162533,094138,090237,014141,126248,0852,015492,3781,020,208
April244,644497.43581,977119,136191,293251,697452517,914868,720
May314,760315,101125,73899,678162,190173,3971,075602,688589,251
June316,770330,207186,535100,256256,980183,899173760,285615,535
July 460,302 147,634 198,013   805,949
August 420,613 206,444 178,975   806,032
September 304,957 210,691 81,048 16,552  613,248
October 353,361 151,280 93,783 7,640  606,064
November 303,123 171,356 141,032 1,232  616,743
December 376,317 142,401 157,091 15  675,824

June 2021 stocks are 24% higher than June 2020 and 26% higher than the previous month, May 2021. Whilst POP stocks rose less than 1% compared to May 2021, Soft Oils stocks rose 54%. Total stocks rose 26% compared to previous month and absolute stock levels continue to rise but nowhere close to the pre-pandemic levels. These low stock levels are an indicator that importers are still not sure how the pandemic will play out. Further, with prices showing a downward slide, nobody is in a hurry to increase stocks.

With HORECA sector having come under lockdown stress again, demand seems to have shifted from palms to softs, which are preferred for home consumption. SFO stocks increased by 58% compared to May 2021 whilst SBO stocks increased by 48%. This could be as a result of shift to domestic consumption from HORECA. SFO stocks increased by 39% compared to June 2020 whilst SBO stocks increased by 86%. The figures look skewed because of the unusually low import levels in 2020.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : Pakistan
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202120202021202020212020202120202021202020212020
January321,802373,6307,000321,802370,630
February341,195417,1703,300341,195420,470
March242,300380,270100242,300380,370
April186,430316,4058,000194,430316,405
May187,050298,75031,00017,500218,050316,250
June174,800275,18021,0003,800195,800278,980
July 264,000 33,000 297,000
August 277,985 17,750 295,735
September 224,376 33,250 257,626
October 171,935 14,800 186,735
November 207,260 4,800 212,060
December 286,380  286,380

At the end of June 2021, the edible oil stocks at Port Qasim Authority (PQA) and Karachi Port Trust (KPT) have recorded a figure of 195,800 MT which is 10.20% less than the closing stocks of the previous month. Out of the total 195,800 MT of stocks available at Port Qasim Authority and Karachi Port, the stocks of palm oil is showing the highest share of 49.70% followed by RBD palm  olein 25.28% and Soybean oil 10.73%. Palm oil and its various fractions have a share of 89.27% in the total ending stocks.

The reduction in the stocks was due to lower-than-expected arrival of oils and fats in the month of June 2021. According to the initial reports, approximately 230,000 MT of palm oil was imported in the month of June as opposed to the anticipated figure of 260,000 MT. It was also reported that three ships carrying palm oil cargo which were supposed to dock in the month of June were unable to find birth due to congestion on the port which led to low arrivals in this month.

It is anticipated that the arrivals in the month of July will exceed 300,000 MT as the bookings for the July are higher considering that the importers wait for any duty/tax change to happen in June budget and adopt a wait and see approach.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : Bangladesh
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202120202021202020212020202120202021202020212020
January5,42988,77363,37377,9722,98568,802169,730
February91,86674,39282,23737,7402,984174,103115,116
March68,247116,480128,23793,8962,984196,484213,360
April70,697115,809169,57684,2172,984240,273203,010
May74,586110,466191,33916,837485265,925127,788
June68,58674,344176,42861,468 485  245,014136,297
July 68,911 112,140 485   181,536
August 37,501 114,885 485   152,871
September 33,072 105,929 485   139,486
October 34,906 106,267 485   141,658
November 3,669 102,312 485   106,466
December 30,442 115,817    146,259

In June 2021, import quantity of total oils and fats was 154,377 tonnes, which was significantly lower by 33.34% compared to the quantity imported in June 2020. Substantial decline of import of palm oil, CDSBO and canola/rape contributed mainly in the said decline. Import quantity of CDSBO, palm oil, rapeseed/canola oil in June, 2021, the major three edible oils consumed in the country, were declined respectively by 53.57%, 53.50% and 100% compared to June 2020, while import of soyabean witnessed a significant growth by 100%. There was no import of CPO, CPL and RBD PO in June 2021.    

In June 2021, total only 97,800 tonnes of CDSBO and palm oil were lifted from the bulk storage terminals of whcih 48,000 tonnes i.e 49.08% was palm oil and rest 49,800 tonnes i.e. 50.92% was CDSBO. Because of end June closing and prevaling restriction on movments, trading volume vis-a-vis lifting of edible oils from bulk storage facilities has declined significantly

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : USA
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)*Sunflower Oil (MT)*Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)*
 202120202021202020212020202120202021202020212020
January170,000155,000823,000689,00034,00038,300106,00072,300113,00055,4001,2460001,010,000
February170,000161,500777,000690,00034,00027,00071,00082,000113,00079,5001,165,0001,040,000
March170,000168,000786,000830,00030,00025,00071,00073,000117,00054,0001,174,0001,150,000
April170,000160,000779,000853,00034,00027,00071,00083,000113,000107,0001,167,0001,230,000
May170,000164,500686,000880,00023,00023,00067,00085,000110,00097,5001,056,0001,250,000
June 160,000 916,000 24,000 66,000 114,000 1,280,000
July 178,000 935,000 34,000 65,000 98,000 1,310,000
August 160,000 941,000 33,000 64,000 22,000 1,220,000
September 171,000 844,000 28,000 75,000 112,000 1,230,000
October 165,000 796,000 31,000 61,000 237,000 1,290,000
November 160,000 857,000 34,000 87,000 113,000 1,251,000
December 160,000 857,000 34,000 87,000 113,000 1,251,000

US ending stock reported a total of 1,056,000 MT for May 2021 which is 10% lower than the ending stock of the previous month of April 2021. From that amount, soybean oil closing stock declined by 12%, sunflower oil declined by 32%, rapeseed oil declined by 6% and no changes recorded by palm oil closing stock, when compared to the amount from the previous month. Strong domestic demand for soybean oil and soymeal is restricting US soybean export. According to USDA, US soybean exports are projected at 56.6 million MT, declining by 5.6 million MT, due to reduced supplies. High soybean crush forecast at 1 million MT will also reduce soybean export supply. US soybean oil prices spiked in April 2021, pushing the US soybean oil price near record highs.

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

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