Monthly Stock Comparison 2021

Monthly Stock Comparison 2021

Country : China
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202120202021202020212020202120202021202020212020
January732,0001,024,200674,800762,500165,900297,4001,572,9002,084,100
February739,2001,053,100728,9001,092,000162,800300,6001,630,9002,445,700
March548,800878,800617,800952,800188,600262,8001,355,2002,094,400
April507,800607,000626,400700,200219,400146,8001,353,6001,454,000
May447,900527,100744,200735,200325,400179,3001,517,5001,441,600
June341,500482,900842,200884,000354,900172,5001,538,6001,539,400
July339,100428,400903,600998,900418,000199,6001,660,7001,626,900
August450,300479,100850,1001,057,800423,100176,5001,723,5001,713,400
September398,300409,500826,3001,056,600 413,600224,200 1,638,2001,690,300
October 470,500 1,022,200  221,100  1,713,800
November 600,500 900,100  157,400  1,658,000
December 714,000 752,900  124,500  1,591,400

Total stock of 3 major vegetable oils consumed in China took a turn in September and ended the 4th consecutive months of increase. The stock level ended at 1.64 million MT by end September, which is 4.9% lower than the volume recorded by end August.  Surprisingly, the stock of all major vegetable oils recorded drop concurrently in the same month for the first time in 2021 with various reasons.

Stock level of PO took a U-turn after the built-up seen in August, indicating the increase in demand in September, which led to the drop of PO stock from 450,300 MT in August to 398,300 MT this month. This came despite the estimated large arrival anticipated for September (even though the official import data not available) due to the favourable import margin in June & July which is expected to attract more importers to lock in the contract and subsequently has the cargoes delivered in Aug & Sep.  The widening of PL discount against SBO in Aug (RMB486.00/MT) and September (RMB517.50/MT) from RMB370/MT in July is then expected to lead to a surge or high consumption volume of palm oil in September, and landed with lower stock in China for the month.

On the other hand, the drop of SBO is likely to had experienced different set of reasons. As the crushing margin turned negative since May this year, the crushers were rather cautious in crushing the soybean unless to honour the contracts committed earlier. This is due to the anticipated drop in soybean meal demand as the animal feed demand from swine sector is expected to slow down in recent months due to the decline of profit margin in swine breeding which turn negative for small farmers since April, and subsequently big organized farm in June. This led to the slaughtering of more swine and most important breeding sows in order to cut down the breeding cost especially on feed used.  Hence, the slowdown in soybean crushing caused the decline in soybean oil output at the same time and led to the decline of SBO stock by 23,800 MT or 2.8%

Similarly, the decline in RSO stock level is also due to the slowdown in rapeseed crushing activities and slowing down of RSO import, as the current record level of high RSO stock has given a clear sign that the RSO price is too high for traders and cooking oil packers to purchase. This is in view that there is almost no or negative margin if the RSO is packed into consumer pack which is a price-controlled item in China.  And the mid-pack cooking oil is also too expensive for the use among the caterers which may have opted for the blended cooking oil or SBO.  Hence, the stock level of RSO retreated marginally by 2.2% from its record stock of 423,100 MT since July 2019 to 413,600 MT. It is anticipated that the RSO stock will continue to drop as the global supplies in experiencing tightness and hence, the demand has to be satisfied through the stock in the country in next few months. 

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : India
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202120202021202020212020202120202021202020212020
January401,695657,547118,327153,082175,553191,37141695,5751,002,041
February317,878672,605181,820234,376119,470233,2851,552619,1681,141,818
March213,162533,094138,090237,014141,126248,0852,015492,3781,020,208
April244,644497.43581,977119,136191,293251,697452517,914868,720
May314,760315,101125,73899,678162,190173,3971,075602,688589,251
June316,770330,207186,535100,256256,980183,899173760,285615,535
July219,568460,302223,333147,634185,517198,013628,418805,949
August320,267420,613215,574206,444106,523178,9755,641647,825806,032
September602,429304,957175,852210,691131,55981,04810,41716,552920,257613,248
October 353,361 151,280 93,783 7,640  606,064
November 303,123 171,356 141,032 1,232  616,743
December 376,317 142,401 157,091 15  675,824

September 2021 stocks are 50% higher than September 2020 and 42% higher than the previous month, August 2021. Whilst POP stocks rose 88% compared to August 2021, Soft Oils stocks fell 3%. Total stocks rose %42 compared to previous month and absolute stock levels have shown a significant upswing. Stocks have risen significantly, indicating a higher level of imports of POP, mainly RBD Olein. Although prices continue to rise, RBD Olein imports have increased sharply, thereby increasing POP imports and stocks. Although Palm stocks have risen and Soft Oil stocks have fallen, ultimate composition of the import basket will depend upon how fast the HORECA sector will come back to its normal operating levels. SFO stocks rose 24% compared to August 2021 whilst SBO stocks reduced by 18%. SFO stocks rose by 62% compared to September 2020 whilst SBO stocks fell 17%.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : Pakistan
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202120202021202020212020202120202021202020212020
January321,802373,6307,000321,802370,630
February341,195417,1703,300341,195420,470
March242,300380,270100242,300380,370
April186,430316,4058,000194,430316,405
May187,050298,75031,00017,500218,050316,250
June174,800275,18021,0003,800195,800278,980
July168,810264,00021,90033,000190,710297,000
August271,255277,98515,90017,750287,155295,735
September297,436224,37613,90033,250311,336257,626
October 171,935 14,800 186,735
November 207,260 4,800 212,060
December 286,380  286,380

At the end of September 2021, the edible oil stocks at Port Qasim Authority (PQA) and Karachi Port Trust (KPT) have recorded a figure of 311,336 MT which is 8.42% higher than the closing stocks of the previous month.

The imports of palm oil in Pakistan have picked up in the last two months with arrivals recording 395,000 MT in August and 305,000 MT in September. This has enabled the stocks of oils and fats to build up again and exceed 300,000 MT after February of this year. The stock level in Pakistan which was running low since March of 2021 has reached its comfortable level and it is anticipated that this level will be maintained through the last quarter of this year. The arrivals of edible oil are anticipated to stay in the range of 285,000 MT to 300,000 MT which is in line with the average consumption of edible oil in the country.

Out of the total 311,336 MT of stocks available at Port Qasim Authority and Karachi Port, the stocks of palm olein is showing the highest share of 47.44% followed by RBD palm oil 39.74% and soybean oil 04.46%. Palm oil and its various fractions have a share of 95.54% in the total ending stocks.

 

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : Bangladesh
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202120202021202020212020202120202021202020212020
January5,42988,77363,37377,9722,98568,802169,730
February91,86674,39282,23737,7402,984174,103115,116
March68,247116,480128,23793,8962,984196,484213,360
April70,697115,809169,57684,2172,984240,273203,010
May74,586110,466191,33916,837485265,925127,788
June68,58674,344176,42861,468485245,014136,297
July93,00368,911172,841112,140485265,844181,536
August137,80037,50146,254114,885485184,054152,871
September133,00033,07218,000105,929485151,000139,486
October 34,906 106,267 485   141,658
November 3,669 102,312 485   106,466
December 30,442 115,817    146,259

In Aug 2021, import quantity of total oils and fats was 184,054 tonnes, which was noticeably higher by 16.94% compared to the quantity imported in Aug 2020. Significant decline in import of CDSBO and rapeseed/canola oil in Aug 2021 respectively by 59.74 % & 100% compared to Aug 2020 contribute mainly in the said decline, while import of palm oil (RBD PL and RBD PO together), soybean, coconut oil and shortenings/vanaspati witnessed positive growth. There was no import of CPO and CPL in Aug 2021 but Imported 800 MT CPKO in Aug 2021.

In Sept 2021, import quantity of total oils and fats was 151,000 tonnes, which was noticeably higher by 7.63% compared to the quantity imported in A Sept 2020. Significant decline in import of CDSBO and rapeseed/canola oil in Sept 2021 respectively by 83.007 % & 100% compared to Sept 2020, contribute mainly in the said decline, while import of palm oil (RBD PL and RBD PO together),

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Due to unforeseen circumstances, stock figures for Bangladesh will be delayed

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : USA
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)*Sunflower Oil (MT)*Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)*
 202120202021202020212020202120202021202020212020
January170,000155,000823,000689,00034,00038,300106,00072,300113,00055,4001,2460001,010,000
February170,000161,500777,000690,00034,00027,00071,00082,000113,00079,5001,165,0001,040,000
March170,000168,000786,000830,00030,00025,00071,00073,000117,00054,0001,174,0001,150,000
April170,000160,000779,000853,00034,00027,00071,00083,000113,000107,0001,167,0001,230,000
May170,000164,500686,000880,00023,00023,00067,00085,000110,00097,5001,056,0001,250,000
June170,000160,000675,000916,00023,00024,00060,00066,000113,000114,0001,041,0001,280,000
July170,000178,000659,000935,00023,00034,00060,00065,000113,00098,0001,025,0001,310,000
August170,000160,000670,000941,00023,00033,00062,90064,000113,00022,0001038,0001,220,000
September170,000171,000815,000844,00023,00028,00060,00075,000113,000112,0001,181,0001,230,000
October 165,000 796,000 31,000 61,000 237,000 1,290,000
November 160,000 857,000 34,000 87,000 113,000 1,251,000
December 160,000 857,000 34,000 87,000 113,000 1,251,000

US ending stock reported a total of 1,181,000 MT for September 2021 which is 13.8% higher than the ending stock of the previous month of August 2021. From that amount, soybean oil closing stock increased by 21.6% while no changes recorded by palm oil and sunflower oil. Rapeseed oil closing stock declined by 3.2% when compared to the amount from the previous month. USDA reported higher-than-expected soybean and soybean oil stocks. Slower exporting and crush paces this past spring were re-factored into soybean stock estimates, pointing to lower usage rates amid high prices and seasonal shifts in Chinese export demand to cheaper Brazilian stocks. There have been recent U.S. soybean sales to China but not on the large scale that the market was looking for.

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

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