Monthly Stock Comparison 2022

Monthly Stock Comparison 2022

Country : China
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202220212022202120222021202220212022202120222021
January407,800732,000745,000674,800303,900165,9001,456,7001,572,900
February369,100739,200699,600728,900327,000162,8001,395,7001,630,900
March345,400548,800680,800617,800304,400188,6001,330,6001,355,200
April290,900507,800791,300626,400289,000219,4001,371,2001,353,600
May238,200447,900861,400744,200277,500325,4001,377,1001,517,500
June193,000341,500888,800842,200221,400354,9001,303,5001,538,600
July272,300339,100784,100903,600165,100418,0001,221,5001,660,700
August305,600450,300704,800850,100139,900423,1001,150,3001,723,500
September514,700398,300706,600826,300126,900413,6001,348,2001,638,200
October675,300490,400670,700790,700112,400387,2001,458,4001,668,300
November 559,400 761,900  307,100  1,628,400
December 577,500 714,600  308,800  1,600,900

Total stock level of the 3 major vegetable oils recorded another month of drastic jump in Oct 2022, by increasing 8.2% m-o-m from September. The increase of 110,200 MT in stock led the total stock to reach 1.46 million MT, the highest in 2022, and 7% away from the average monthly stock recorded in 2021.  The significant increase in stock could be attributed to the ongoing re-stocking activities led by the drastic drop in vegetable oils prices in recent months.

PO continued to be the vegetable oil that led the build-up of stock level in China, primarily due to its price competitiveness against SBO and RSO. The close proximity of the countries of origin for PO also explains why the stock rose faster than other vegetable oil as the shipping time is far shorter than others. As a result, PO stock in China rose to 20-month high of 675,300 MT by end October, and far higher than month average stock recorded in 2021 at 511,300 MT.  The jump in stock (31.2% m-o-m) may not be so high if it was not because of the economic situation in China that slowed down the pace of recovery in industry activities. For instance, the revenue from catering sector in China in Jan-Sep period recorded a drop of 4.6% Y-o-Y, which certainly impacted the overall demand of PO in China.

In contrary to the build-up of stock for PO, stock level of SBO dropped to its 18-month low of 670,700 MT, 5.1% or 35,900 MT lower against September’s stock.  Although monthly average soybean crushing margin has further improved from RMB267.00/MT to RMB1235/MT in Oct, the increased SBO output expected from rising crushing volume was unable to satisfy the increase in SBO demand due to the arrival of colder temperature in most Northern parts of China, especially when the total SBO import has dropped by 828,000 MT or 79%, while accumulated output of SBO in China has also lowered by 982,000 MT in Jan-Sep 2022 vis-à-vis last year.

Stock level of RSO continues to drop for the 8th consecutive month in 2022, and charted a multi-year low recorded of 112,400 MT in Oct. The record low stock level was partly attributed to the continuous high price premium resulted from shortage in supplies of both RSO and rapeseed.  The political tension between China and Australia and recently with Canada is expected to put the RSO and rapeseed as the least needed imported oil or oilseeds among the traders in order to avoid the cargoes being held by customs and unable to be cleared upon arrival. With stock of rapeseed also low by end of Oct, the RSO stock may not recover significantly by end of 2022.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : India
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202220212022202120222021202220212022202120222021
January398,777401,695154,598118,327154,647175,5533,637711,659695,575
February336,270317,878107,166181,82083,065119,47043526,544619,168
March349,212213,162127,988138,090119,115141,126596,325492,378
April251,594244,644101,10581,97780,225191,293432,924517,914
May240,865314,760166,426125,738100,435162,190507,726602,688
June134,513316,770143,163186,5351,517256,980279,193760,285
July40,450219,568168,593223,333249185,517209,292628,418
August332,225320,267190,479215,574116,228106,5235,641638,932647,825
September484,369602,429181,360175,852103,486131,55910,417769,215920,257
October434,677420,691119,851108,02564,04987,18515,233618,577631,134
November 437,789 206,160 80,978 14,083  739,010
December 344,886 161,001 97,338 9,801  613,026

October 2022 stocks are 2% lower than October 2021 and 20% lower than the previous month, Sept 2022. Stocks this month, at 618k, are higher than most monthly stocks in the current year, barring a couple of months. Similar is the situation with POP stock levels too, at 434K MT. Soft Oils stocks have witnessed a decline by 6% compared to Oct 2021 and 35% compared to Sept 2022, mainly due to SFO. CSFO stocks declined 27% compared to Oct 2021 and 38% compared to Sept 2022. SBO stocks, for the same periods, rose by 11% and fell by 34%. In POP, RBD Olein stocks fell significantly to 132k compared to 195k in Sept 2022. CPO rose from 242k to 248k MT. The fluctuating Ukraine situation will continue to influence the composition of the import basket, especially SBO/SFO. This is an opportunity for POP suppliers to consolidate the position of POP. However removal of certain import duties/cess on Soft Oils has made them more competitive, throwing up new challenges for PPO.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : Pakistan
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202220212022202120222021202220212022202120222021
January273,242321,80216,000289,242321,802
February203,365341,19510,500213,865341,195
March186,865242,30025,740212,605242,300
April267,230186,4309,2008,000276,430194,430
May170,390187,05024,15031,000194,540218,050
June58,720174,80037,20021,00095,920195,800
July249,830168,81036,60021,900286,430190,710
August289,756271,25532,00015,900321,756287,155
September278,870297,43637,33013,900316,200311,336
October214,078331,49643,12020,900257,198352,396
November 338,920 12,200    351,120
December 314,670 6,900    321,570

At the end of October 2022, the edible oil stocks at Port Qasim Authority (PQA) and Karachi Port Trust (KPT) have recorded a figure of 257,198 MT which is 18.66% less than the closing stocks of the previous month. Out of the total 257,198MT of stocks available at Port Qasim Authority and Karachi Port, the stocks of RBD palm oil is showing the highest share of 47.59% followed by palm olein 30.80%. Palm oil and its various fractions have a share of 83.23% in the total ending stocks.

The decline of the stocks was anticipated in the previous report as the import of oils and fats was expected to decline due to several reasons including depreciating local currency, volatile pricing, high cost of borrowing and high freight cost. The overall imports for the month of October were recorded at approx. 200,000 MT which led to higher usage of local stocks which are showing a decline of 18.66%.  The stocks may regain slightly in the month of November as the arrivals of oils and fats are likely to improve in the last two months which will help to build the stocks back to its optimum level.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

 

 

Country : Bangladesh
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202220212022202120222021202220212022202120222021
January24,4705,42919,05063,37343,52068,802
February59,28091,86625,83082,23785,110174,103
March88,18068,24728,700128,2377,000123,880196,484
April36,68870,69728,817169,5762,50068,005240,273
May28,63574,58625,525191,33954,160265,925
June21,52568,58619,910176,42841,435245,014
July52,00093,00354,530172,841106,530265,844
August76,45028,70075,40048,720151,85077,420
September140,70024,460114,56060,470255,26084,930
October220,34545,86093,77547,995314,12093,855
November 40,335 43,175    83,510
December 50,660 36,885    87,545

Oct 2022 stocks are 234.67 % Higher than Oct 2021 and 23.06% higher than the previous month, Sept2022. Meanwhile, POP Stock increased by 56.61% compared to Sept 2022, Soft Oil stocks decreased by 22.16%. RBD Olein stocks continue to be at healthy levels compared to CPO, thereby indicating sustained imports. Palm Oil & soft oil stocks have been increasing gradually, prices not shown any significant change in the local market. Indonesian Palm oil are at healthy level compared to Malaysian Palm oil concerning price issues and ability of purchase of people in Bangladesh. Govt, taxes continue at 5% basis on soybean and Palm Oil imports in Bangladesh

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Due to unforeseen circumstances, stock figures for Bangladesh will be delayed

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : USA
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)*Sunflower Oil (MT)*Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)*
 202220212022202120222021202220212022202120222021
January154,000170,000942,000823,00023,00034,00052,000106,000113,000113,0001,284,0001,246000
February154,000170,000942,000777,00023,00034,00052,00071,000113,000113,0001,284,0001,165,000
March154,000170,000896,000786,00023,00030,00077,00071,000113,000117,0001,263,0001,174,000
April159,000170,000774,000779,00023,00034,00088,00071,000113,000113,0001,157,0001,167,000
May159,000170,000763,000686,00023,00023,00088,00067,000113,000110,0001,146,0001,056,000
June159,000170,000754,000675,00023,00023,00071,00060,000113,000113,0001,120,0001,041,000
July159,000170,000822,000659,00023,00023,00071,00060,000113,000113,0001,188,0001,025,000
August159,000170,000828,000670,00023,00023,00067,00062,900113,000113,0001,190,0001,038,000
September159,000170,000837,000815,00023,00023,00073,00060,000113,000113,0001,205,0001,181,000
October159,000154,000843,000867,00023,00023,00081,00058,000116,000113,0001,222,0001,215,000
November 154,000 869,000 23,000 52,000 113,000 1,211,000
December 154,000 869,000 23,000 52,000 113,000 1,211,000

US ending stock reported a total of 1,222,000 MT for October 2022, reflecting an increase by 1.41% compared to the previous month. From that amount, the ending stock of soybean oil increased by 0.72% while rapeseed oil end stock increased by 10.96%. No changes were reflected by palm oil and sunflower oil end stock when compared to the volume from the previous month. Strong domestic demand in the US as soybean oil is primarily used as feedstock for biodiesel. In Brazil, heavy rains have partly damaged the recently planted soybeans causing soybean sowings to be behind the schedule. Following the introduction of the ‘soya dollar’ in Argentina, soybean export from South America to China has skyrocketed. If weather conditions in Argentina improve and sufficient moisture is received, Argentine soybean production could increase.

Source: *USDA, MPOC Estimates

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

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