Monthly Stock Comparison 2023

Monthly Stock Comparison 2023

Country : China
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202320222023202220232022202320222023202220232022
January918,000407,800677,300745,000147,500303,9001,744,8001,456,700
February943,400369,100596,900699,600200,500327,0001,740,8001,395,700
March 345,400 680,800  304,400  1,330,600
April 290,900 791,300  289,000  1,371,200
May 238,200 861,400  277,500  1,377,100
June 193,000 888,800  221,400  1,303,500
July 272,300 784,100  165,100  1,221,500
August 305,600 704,800  139,900  1,150,300
September 514,700 706,600  126,900  1,348,200
October 675,300 670,700  112,400  1,458,400
November 874,300 611,500  169,800  1,655,600
December 969,600 624,800  107,000  1,701,400

The total month-end stock of 3 major vegetable oils in Feb 2023 was recorded at 1.74 million MT, almost unchanged from January (-0.2%).  This might be broadly due to the considered high level of stock in the country which deterred importers to aggressively bringing in higher volume of vegetable oil, instead prefer to ration the supply until a clearer demand opportunity emerges.

After taking a dip in stock level in January, PO stock level rose in February by 25,400 MT or 2.8% m-o-m. The increase came despite the market sources indicated that the import of palm oil has been slowing down in China lately, as most traders/importers considered current stock level is relatively high against the demand in the country.  The drop might be higher if not because of the steep discount of PL against SBO at an average RMB1607.50/MT in February. Such large discount still enable the refiners to fractionate PL to lower melting point to compete with SBO with good margin.

Besides PO, the stock level of RSO in February also increased steeply by 34.1% or 51,000 MT against previous month, and touched 8-month high of 200,500 MT. The increase was due to the continuous large arrival of rapeseed and led to the aggressive crushing activities, subsequently resulted in higher stock level.

Among the 3 major oils, SBO was the only vegetable oil witnessed a drop in stock level, and for the 3rd consecutive months.  The continuous drop could be attributed to the ongoing decline in crushing margin after reaching the highest level in Oct 2022. Although there were still positive crushing margin, but the poor short term outlook of animal feed demand has led to many crushers being cautious since the soybean meal stock level touches its highest level since mid-September 2022.   By end of Feb 2023, the stock level of SBO was recorded at 596,900 MT.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : India
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202320222023202220232022202320222023202220232022
January667,054398,777169,253154,598229,212154,6473,6371,065,519711,659
February623,359336,270113,401107,166194,13883,06543930,898526,544
March 349,212 127,988 119,115  10 596,325
April 251,594 101,105 80,225   432,924
May 240,865 166,426 100,435   507,726
June 134,513 143,163 1,517   279,193
July 40,450 168,593 249   209,292
August 332,225 190,479 116,228   638,932
September 484,369 181,360 103,486   769,215
October 434,677 119,851 64,049   618,577
November 580,515 61,140 110,552   752,207
December 706,996 344,886 100,165   900,827

February 2023 stocks are 77% higher than February 2022 and 13% lower than the previous month, January 2023. POP stocks, at 623k, are lower by 7% compared to the 667K in the previous month, January, 2023. Soft Oils stocks have registered an increase of 62% compared to Feb 2022 but a decline of 23% compared to Jan 2023. CDSBO stocks rose 6% compared to Feb 2022 but fell 23% compared to Jan 2023. CSFO stocks, for the same periods, rose by 134% and fell 15%, respectively. In POP, RBD Olein stocks rose 9% marginally, to 209k, compared to 191k in Jan 2023. At the same time, CPO stocks fell to 353k from 429k in Jan 2023. The significant fall of 23% in stock levels of Soft Oils at the end of Feb 2023 is an indicator of possible reduction in its imports due to POP becoming competitive. The Ukraine situation and price competitiveness of POP will continue to influence the composition of the import basket.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : Pakistan
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202320222023202220232022202320222023202220232022
January369,445273,24233,50016,0002,000404,945289,242
February418,415203,36537,90010,500456,315213,865
March 186,865 25,740    212,605
April 267,230 9,200    276,430
May 170,390 24,150    194,540
June 58,720 37,200    95,920
July 249,830 36,600    286,430
August 289,756 32,000    321,756
September 278,870 37,330    316,200
October 214,078 43,120    257,198
November 286,370 32,300    318,670
December 332,105 21,500    353,605

At the end of February 2023, the edible oil stocks at Port Qasim Authority (PQA) and Karachi Port Trust (KPT) have recorded a figure of 456,315 MT which is 12.69% higher than the closing stocks of the previous month.

Out of the total 456,315MT of stocks available at Port Qasim Authority and Karachi Port, the stocks of RBD palm olein is showing the highest share of 52.49% followed by palm oil 36.05%. Palm oil and its various fractions have a share of 91.69% in the total ending stocks.

The weekly off take of the oils and fats has been in the month of February due to continued slow processing of document at the bank which has resulted in the increase of stocks at PQA. The arrivals in the month of March are likely to be lower at the level of 180,000 – 200,000 MT which will result in reduction of stocks at the end of the month.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : Bangladesh
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202320222023202220232022202320222023202220232022
January131,53024,47049,83019,050181,36043,520
February138,87059,28054,90025,830193,77085,110
March 88,180 28,700    123,880
April 36,688 28,817    68,005
May 28,635 25,525    54,160
June 21,525 19,910    41,435
July 52,000 54,530    106,530
August 76,450 75,400    151,850
September 140,700 114,560    255,260
October 220,345 93,775    314,120
November 184,830 82,940    267,770
December 169,135 53,715    222,850

February 2023 stocks are 127.67 % higher than February 2022 and 6.84% lower than the previous month, January 2023. Meanwhile, POP Stock increased by 5.72% compared to Jan 2023, Soft Oil stocks increased by 10.16%. RBD Olein stocks continue to be at healthy levels compared to CPO, as well as compared with January 2022. Palm Oil & Soft oil stocks expected to increase in March 23 due to the upcoming Ramadan in March 2023. Dollar crisis in Bangladesh is likely to ease, however, it may take some time, with the ease in the dollar crisis, it is estimated to increase POP & Soft oil imports in coming months in 2023.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Due to unforeseen circumstances, stock figures for Bangladesh will be delayed

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : USA
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
Palm Oil (MT) Soybean Oil (MT)* Sunflower Oil (MT)* Rapeseed Oil (MT) Other Oils (MT) Total Ending Stocks (MT)*
  2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022
January 159,000 154,000 878,000 942,000 26,000 23,000 102,000 52,000 116,000 113,000 1,281,000 1,284,000
February   154,000   942,000   23,000   52,000   113,000   1,284,000
March   154,000   896,000   23,000   77,000   113,000   1,263,000
April   159,000   774,000   23,000   88,000   113,000   1,157,000
May   159,000   763,000   23,000   88,000   113,000   1,146,000
June   159,000   754,000   23,000   71,000   113,000   1,120,000
July   159,000   822,000   23,000   71,000   113,000   1,188,000
August   159,000   828,000   23,000   67,000   113,000   1,190,000
September   159,000   837,000   23,000   73,000   113,000   1,205,000
October   159,000   843,000   23,000   81,000   116,000   1,222,000
November   159,000   862,000   23,000   79,000   116,000   1,239,000
December   159,000   862,000   23,000   86,000   116,000   1,246,000
US ending stock reported a total of 1,281,000 MT for January 2023, reflecting an icrease by 2.8% compared to the previous month. From that amount, the ending stock of soybean oil increased by 1.86%, sunflower oil increased by 13.04%, rapeseed oil increased by 18.6% while no changes were recorded for palm oil endstock when compared to the volume from the previous month. Strong US domestic demand for soybean oil and high prices have diverted supplies away from the export market. The share of US soybean oil production used for domestic industrial consumption is expected to rise, especially for biofuel production. Argentine soybean farmer are likely to hold onto 2022/23 soybeans, to hedge against inflation and uncertainties surrounding exchange rates and the October 2023 general election. Looking ahead, the current discount level between palm and soybean oil will likely be sustained with reduced Argentina soybean production and strong US biodiesel demand outweighing the impact of Indonesia palm oil policy. Indonesia recently implemented a higher biofuel blending mandate of B35 from B30. Source: *USDA, MPOC Estimates
*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

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