Monthly Stock Comparison 2023
| Country : China | ||||||||||||
| Oils and Fats Ending Stocks | ||||||||||||
| Palm Oil (MT) | Soybean Oil (MT) | Sunflower Oil (MT) | Rapeseed Oil (MT) | Other Oils (MT) | Total Ending Stocks (MT) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | |
| January | 918,000 | 407,800 | 677,300 | 745,000 | – | – | 147,500 | 303,900 | – | – | 1,744,800 | 1,456,700 |
| February | 943,400 | 369,100 | 596,900 | 699,600 | – | – | 200,500 | 327,000 | – | – | 1,740,800 | 1,395,700 |
| March | 911,800 | 345,400 | 541,100 | 680,800 | – | – | 240,600 | 304,400 | – | – | 1,693,500 | 1,330,600 |
| April | 762,400 | 290,900 | 631,900 | 791,300 | – | – | 359,600 | 289,000 | – | – | 1,753,900 | 1,371,200 |
| May | 543,500 | 238,200 | 709,400 | 861,400 | – | – | 473,500 | 277,500 | – | – | 1,726,400 | 1,377,100 |
| June | 453,200 | 193,000 | 891,200 | 888,800 | – | – | 452,400 | 221,400 | – | – | 1,796,800 | 1,303,500 |
| July | 634,200 | 272,300 | 983,200 | 784,100 | – | – | 404,500 | 165,100 | – | – | 2,021,900 | 1,221,500 |
| August | 627,500 | 305,600 | 976,300 | 704,800 | – | – | 430,400 | 139,900 | – | – | 2,034,200 | 1,150,300 |
| September | 514,700 | 706,600 | – | 126,900 | – | 1,348,200 | ||||||
| October | 675,300 | 670,700 | – | 112,400 | – | 1,458,400 | ||||||
| November | 874,300 | 611,500 | – | 169,800 | – | 1,655,600 | ||||||
| December | 969,600 | 624,800 | – | 107,000 | – | 1,701,400 | ||||||
The accumulated stock of 3 major vegetable oils extended its upward trend for the 3rd consecutive month by end Aug, but the growth was marginal at 0.6% or 12,300 MT against last month. Among the 3 major oils, both PO and SBO witnessed m-o-m decline in stock but stock of RSO jumped significantly by 6.4% or 25,900 MT, which led to the increase in overall stock level of vegetable oil in China during the month.
Despite the unavailability of official import data, PO import is estimated to maintain its high volume level in August despite the ongoing negative margin. This is in view of the narrowing of negative margin in August (from –RMB134.40 in May to –RMB63.50/MT in Jun) and coupled with the widening of PL price discount against SBO from RMB688/MT in Jul to an average of RMB1,030/MT, has triggered the demand for more PO this month. As such the stock level of PO ended the month of August at 1.1% or 6,700 MT lower than the previous month.
Similar to PO, the stock level of SBO also dropped marginally in August from 983,200 MT to 976,300 MT by 0.7%. The decline of stock was mainly attributed the decline in SBO demand due to higher premium against PL, but the impact (build up in stock) was offset by the slowdown in soybean import and crushing activity in August, despite improved crushing margin. Soybean crushing margin in August improved significantly from an average –RMB78.80/MT to RMB295.75/MT based on the US soybean forward price offered.
With the high import activities of rapeseed come to an end since July, crushing of rapeseed has showed the sign of slowing down since July, which should lead to the decline in RSO stock. In contrary, stock level of RSO increased by 6.4% in August, thanks to the constant premium of RSO against SBO at above an average of RMB1,200/MT. However, the stock level may decline in coming months due to the slowdown in crushing activities but expected to stay above 400,000 MT due to poor uptake from the market.
Source: MPOC Market Intelligence
Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month
*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.
| Country : India | ||||||||||||
| Oils and Fats Ending Stocks | ||||||||||||
| Palm Oil (MT) | Soybean Oil (MT) | Sunflower Oil (MT) | Rapeseed Oil (MT) | Other Oils (MT) | Total Ending Stocks (MT) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | |
| January | 667,054 | 398,777 | 169,253 | 154,598 | 229,212 | 154,647 | – | 3,637 | – | – | 1,065,519 | 711,659 |
| February | 623,359 | 336,270 | 113,401 | 107,166 | 194,138 | 83,065 | – | 43 | – | – | 930,898 | 526,544 |
| March | 567,775 | 349,212 | 138,644 | 127,988 | 169,358 | 119,115 | – | – | – | 10 | 875,777 | 596,325 |
| April | 448,951 | 251,594 | 132,989 | 101,105 | 175,111 | 80,225 | – | – | – | – | 756,960 | 432,924 |
| May | 326,338 | 240,865 | 138,245 | 166,426 | 267,748 | 100,435 | – | – | – | – | 732,331 | 507,726 |
| June | 387,948 | 134,513 | 231,114 | 143,163 | 174,656 | 1,517 | – | – | – | – | 793,718 | 279,193 |
| July | 445,774 | 40,450 | 274,344 | 168,593 | 200,860 | 249 | – | – | – | – | 920,978 | 209,292 |
| August | 758,003 | 332,225 | 291,994 | 190,479 | 281,153 | 116,228 | – | – | – | – | 1,331,150 | 638,932 |
| September | 484,369 | 181,360 | 103,486 | – | – | 769,215 | ||||||
| October | 434,677 | 119,851 | 64,049 | – | – | 618,577 | ||||||
| November | 580,515 | 61,140 | 110,552 | – | – | 752,207 | ||||||
| December | 706,996 | 344,886 | 100,165 | – | – | 900,827 | ||||||
In August 2023, stocks have shown significant growth, with a remarkable 108% increase compared to August 2022 and a notable 45% surge compared to the preceding month, July 2023. It’s important to note that when comparing with July 2022 figures, there is some distortion due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on SFO imports in July 2022, although they had begun to recover. Additionally, PO imports faced restrictions due to Indonesian export limitations.
POP stocks, currently standing at 758k, have surged by a substantial 70% when compared to the 445k recorded in July 2023, and an even more impressive 128% when juxtaposed with August 2022 figures.
Soft Oils stocks have seen an 87% increase compared to August 2022 and a 21% growth compared to July 2023. Meanwhile, CDSBO stocks have risen by 53% in comparison to August 2022 and by 6% in comparison to July 2023. CSFO stocks have also experienced substantial growth, registering increases of 142% and 40% for the same respective periods.
Within the POP category, RBD Olein stocks, currently at 232k, have risen by 24% compared to July 2023. Concurrently, CPO stocks have seen a remarkable 135% increase, reaching 495k from the previous 228k recorded in July 2023.
It’s worth noting that the price competitiveness of POP will continue to be a significant factor influencing the composition of the import basket.
Source: MPOC Market Intelligence
Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month
*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.
| Country : Pakistan | ||||||||||||
| Oils and Fats Ending Stocks | ||||||||||||
| Palm Oil (MT) | Soybean Oil (MT) | Sunflower Oil (MT) | Rapeseed Oil (MT) | Other Oils (MT) | Total Ending Stocks (MT) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | |
| January | 369,445 | 273,242 | 33,500 | 16,000 | – | – | 2,000 | – | – | – | 404,945 | 289,242 |
| February | 418,415 | 203,365 | 37,900 | 10,500 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 456,315 | 213,865 |
| March | 297,380 | 186,865 | 19,000 | 25,740 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 316,380 | 212,605 |
| April | 249,980 | 267,230 | 20,500 | 9,200 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 270,780 | 276,430 |
| May | 298,500 | 170,390 | 33,000 | 24,150 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 331,500 | 194,540 |
| June | 335,198 | 58,720 | 30,450 | 37,200 | 4,500 | – | 8,000 | – | – | – | 378,148 | 95,920 |
| July | 416,532 | 249,830 | 39,800 | 36,600 | 3,900 | – | 4,200 | – | – | – | 464,432 | 286,430 |
| August | 368,713 | 289,756 | 43,550 | 32,000 | 2,500 | – | 9,000 | – | – | 423,763 | 321,756 | |
| September | 278,870 | 37,330 | – | – | – | 316,200 | ||||||
| October | 214,078 | 43,120 | – | – | – | 257,198 | ||||||
| November | 286,370 | 32,300 | – | – | – | 318,670 | ||||||
| December | 332,105 | 21,500 | – | – | – | 353,605 | ||||||
At the end of August 2023, the edible oil stocks at Port Qasim Authority (PQA) and Karachi Port Trust (KPT) have recorded a figure of 423,763 MT which is 8.7% lower than the closing stocks of the previous month.
The stock buildup in the last months due to high arrivals of edible oil is likely to reduce in coming months. The imports in September is expected to stay below 250,000 MT which will also bring the stock down further at the end of this month.
Out of the total 423,763MT of stocks available at Port Qasim Authority and Karachi Port, the stocks of RBD palm oil are showing the highest share of 45.60% followed by palm oil 36.50%. Palm oil and its various fractions have a share of 87.01% in the total ending stocks.
Source: MPOC Market Intelligence
Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month
*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.
| Country : Bangladesh | ||||||||||||
| Oils and Fats Ending Stocks | ||||||||||||
| Palm Oil (MT) | Soybean Oil (MT) | Sunflower Oil (MT) | Rapeseed Oil (MT) | Other Oils (MT) | Total Ending Stocks (MT) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | |
| January | 131,530 | 24,470 | 49,830 | 19,050 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 181,360 | 43,520 |
| February | 138,870 | 59,280 | 54,900 | 25,830 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 193,770 | 85,110 |
| March | 149,100 | 88,180 | 67,900 | 28,700 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 217,000 | 123,880 |
| April | 138,960 | 36,688 | 79,520 | 28,817 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 218,480 | 68,005 |
| May | 113,030 | 28,635 | 70,550 | 25,525 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 183,580 | 54,160 |
| June | 91,540 | 21,525 | 62,760 | 19,910 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 154,300 | 41,435 |
| July | 99,450 | 52,000 | 71,990 | 54,530 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 171,440 | 106,530 |
| August | 102,170 | 76,450 | 44,077 | 75,400 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 146,247 | 151,850 |
| September | 140,700 | 114,560 | – | – | – | 255,260 | ||||||
| October | 220,345 | 93,775 | – | – | – | 314,120 | ||||||
| November | 184,830 | 82,940 | – | – | – | 267,770 | ||||||
| December | 169,135 | 53,715 | – | – | – | 222,850 | ||||||
The stock levels for August 2023 show a 3.83% decrease compared to July 2022 and a more substantial 17.23% drop compared to the preceding month, July 2023.
It’s important to note that within this context, there are specific observations for different types of stocks. POP stocks have declined by 2.73% when compared to July 2023, indicating a minor reduction. However, Soft Oil stocks have experienced a significant 63.35% decrease during the same period, suggesting a notable decline in this category.
In contrast, Palm Oil stocks have maintained consistently healthy levels, and when compared to CPO and Soft Oil, they exhibit a degree of stability.
Looking ahead, Palm Oil stocks have not only increased compared to July 2023 but also hold the potential to remain steady in September 2023, which may have broader implications for the market.
Source: MPOC Market Intelligence
Due to unforeseen circumstances, stock figures for Bangladesh will be delayed
*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.
| Country : USA | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oils and Fats Ending Stocks | ||||||||||||
| Palm Oil (MT) | Soybean Oil (MT)* | Sunflower Oil (MT)* | Rapeseed Oil (MT) | Other Oils (MT) | Total Ending Stocks (MT)* | |||||||
| 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | |
| January | 159,000 | 154,000 | 878,000 | 942,000 | 26,000 | 23,000 | 102,000 | 52,000 | 116,000 | 113,000 | 1,281,000 | 1,284,000 |
| February | 159,000 | 154,000 | 878,000 | 942,000 | 26,000 | 23,000 | 102,000 | 52,000 | 116,000 | 113,000 | 1,281,000 | 1,284,000 |
| March | 159,000 | 154,000 | 878,000 | 896,000 | 26,000 | 23,000 | 131,000 | 77,000 | 116,000 | 113,000 | 1,310,000 | 1,263,000 |
| April | 159,000 | 159,000 | 878,000 | 774,000 | 26,000 | 23,000 | 131,000 | 88,000 | 116,000 | 113,000 | 1,310,000 | 1,157,000 |
| May | 159,000 | 159,000 | 831,000 | 763,000 | 29,000 | 23,000 | 120,000 | 88,000 | 116,000 | 113,000 | 1,255,000 | 1,146,000 |
| June | 159,000 | 159,000 | 833,000 | 754,000 | 29,000 | 23,000 | 94,000 | 71,000 | 116,000 | 113,000 | 1,231,000 | 1,120,000 |
| July | 159,000 | 159,000 | 831,000 | 822,000 | 29,000 | 23,000 | 79,000 | 71,000 | 116,000 | 113,000 | 1,214,000 | 1,188,000 |
| August | 159,000 | 828,000 | 23,000 | 67,000 | 113,000 | 1,190,000 | ||||||
| September | 159,000 | 837,000 | 23,000 | 73,000 | 113,000 | 1,205,000 | ||||||
| October | 159,000 | 843,000 | 23,000 | 81,000 | 116,000 | 1,222,000 | ||||||
| November | 159,000 | 862,000 | 23,000 | 79,000 | 116,000 | 1,239,000 | ||||||
| December | 159,000 | 862,000 | 23,000 | 86,000 | 116,000 | 1,246,000 | ||||||
US ending stock reported a total of 1,214,000 MT for July 2023, reflecting a decline of 1.38% when compared to the previous month. From that amount, soybean oil ending stock decreased by 0.24%. On the other hand, the ending stock of rapeseed oil decreased by 15.96%. No changes were recorded for palm oil and sunflower oil ending stocks. China is likely to continue buying larger volumes of soybeans from Brazil and potentially less from the US. Prices of the new U.S. crop have been rising on lower supply expectations, while Brazil output prospects remain robust. Shipments of US soybean has decreased recently since Chinese buyers are taking advantage from bumper Brazilian soybean crop and attractive prices. The “soy dollar” program in Argentina contributed to recovery in the country’s soybean shipments.
Source: *USDA, MPOC Estimates
*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.
